I do not think that in my lifetime I have heard so many people discussing constitutional affairs. The Brexit result last week has seen a petition of over 4 million signatures calling for a second EU referendum (followed, rather amusingly, for a petition calling for Stuart Pearce to be allowed to re-take his 1990 penalty for England.) There are debates about how parliament might find a way around the Fixed-Term Parliament Act to allow a general election before 2020. Can Scotland remain a part of the EU without independence from the rest of the UK? Then what of Northern Ireland? Will border posts and customs be needed again between the pro-EU Irish Republic, and the post-Brexit north?
However angry, dismayed, frustrated or committed we are to a particular path, constitutions are sovereign, and are there for a reason. It is the constitution, ultimately, that protects democratic process, and ensures that there is a clear way forward in times of turmoil – and surely now we are in those times. If the process of navigating a specific situation proves that a particular constitutional mechanism is no longer fit for purpose, then the constitution will need to be debated and corrected and changed – through democratic process – at a later date, but we cannot change the rules mid-game to suit the outcome we want in that moment when democratic process has set the rules as they are.
And so to the Labour Party.
This week’s vote of no-confidence in Jeremy Corbyn has no constitutional legitimacy within Labour Party rules – it is (as was the EU referendum) – “non-binding”, and advisory. Corbyn, and Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) are under no obligation to take any action in the face of it.
The Labour rule book is clear. The leader of the Labour Party is chosen by the whole membership – and that includes the Parliamentary Labour Party, party memebers, registered supporters and trade union and socialist society affiliates. In an ironic twist, it was Labour’sSpecial Conference in March 2014 that first gave rise to the “one member one vote” system (including the idea of registered supporters) that arguably gave rise to the mass join-up last year that helped to deliver Corbyn’s overwhelming mandate. The “hard left” – now blamed by the PLP for Labour’s woes – actually were the voices of opposition at that conference, concerned about the impact of any distancing of the Labour Party from the Trade Unions.
The only democratic and constitutional way for the Labour leader to be replaced is through a leadership contest. The problem is, it seems likely that not only would Corbyn win a contest, he could well win with an increased mandate – particularly as there are now reports that over 20,000 people have joined the Labour Party in the last week. This would leave the Leader with a renewed mandate from the membership, but with a PLP that overwhelmingly does not want him – and of course they never did.
The party cannot form an effective opposition without a disciplined and coordinated PLP, with MPs that can work with a leader that has a clear mandate. If the membership mandates the leader, and the MPs are out of kilter with the membership, then surely the logical conclusion is that it then becomes the MPs that have to go – and we could see mass de-selections as the party gears-up to a general election.
So far, Angela Eagle is the only declared candidate to stand against Corbyn – which is itself problematic. Some within the party (myself included) might have been prepared to compromise by supporting a genuine “unity candidate” – someone who reflects the desire for a “new politics” (as opposed to a return to new Labour) and to see Labour vigorously oppose austerity, while also recognising that in a media age a certain degree of slickness, PR awareness and message coordination are necessary. Tom Watson has ruled himself out of the running, and Angela Eagle is certainly not that candidate – she voted in favour of the Iraq war, the bombing of Syria, and a rise in tuition fees. She is unlikely to be embraced by the left-wing activist base. To top it off, her own Constituency Labour Party of Wallesey recently debated the matter and came out in support of Corbyn. Whatever steps she is now taking, she is doing so in defiance of her own local members.
Some speculate that in Eagle breaking cover, others may now come forward to stand. The problem this presents for the rebels is that the “Anyone But Corbyn” faction of the party then see their vote split between two or more candidates, further enhancing the odds of an increased mandate for Corbyn. Arguably, had Yvette Cooper and Liz Kendall stepped aside last year then Corbyn’s own mandate might have been significantly reduced if the left felt it had a choice between two of its own.
It’s hard to see how this mess plays out. Assuming Corbyn would still win any contest, we are likely to see either a split in the Labour Party with an SDP MkII emerging, or a whole lot of de-selections of sitting Labour MPs who find that all those letters and emails calling for the leader to go cannot be un-written. If a rival party is established, who would fund it? The majority of Trade Unions would surely still back Labour, and it is hard to see why big business would stop backing the Tories – especially as they would look strengthened by Labour’s convulsions. The tragic thing that all this is being played out – quite unnecessarily in my view – at a time when we should be holding to account a lame duck Prime Minister, forced to resign because he called and lost a referendum that was unnecessary in order to shut up UKIP and his own eurosceptic backbenchers.
And what of Exeter? Ben Bradshaw and the Labour Leader of Exeter Council Cllr Peter Edwards both called for Corbyn to stand down, triggering a petition of the not inconsiderable left-wing element of local membership to start a petition in support of Corbyn. (You can see the petition here.)
As Exeter Labour Party approaches its AGM, nominations are now open for key roles within the CLP, including Chair, Vice Chair and Secretary. Local branches are now meeting to consider nominations and to vote to endorse particular candidates, and already it is clear that some who are Momentum supporters – Corbyn’s activist support base – may well be tempted to move for senior positions within the local party, and that could be bad news for local MP Ben Bradshaw.
In such turbulent times, predictions are all speculation, but it looks like we are in for a very interesting few months within Labour – nationally and locally.
Simon Bowkett
