‘We now have 420,000 more people in employment than there were before the pandemic began.’ (Boris Johnson)
OUR VERDICT
False. The total number of people in employment, including the self-employed, is 600,000 lower than before the pandemic began.
“We now have 420,000 more people in employment than there were before the pandemic began.”
Boris Johnson, 18 January 2022.
In an interview with Sky News, Boris Johnson claimed, again, that there are more people in employment now than there were before the Covid-19 pandemic began. This is incorrect as the cited figures don’t include people who are self-employed.
A commonly repeated claim
This is far from the first time the Prime Minister has made this error. Mr Johnson made similar claims at Prime Minister’s Questions on 24 November, 5 January and 12 January.
Also, several Cabinet Ministers and MPs have repeated the claim, including Nadine Dorries on 13 January and Mark Spencer and Suella Braverman on 12 January. It was repeated by ITV News on 18 January.
Including self-employed people, employment has fallen
When Full Fact first fact checked this claim back in November, we were told that the figure Mr Johnson used referred to the number of workers on employer payrolls. Estimates for December 2021 show there were around 29.5 million payrolled employees in the UK, around 409,000 more than in February 2020 before the start of the pandemic.
But this figure doesn’t include everyone in employment as the Prime Minister claimed. Notably it excludes the self-employed.
Data from the Office for National Statistics, which includes all people in paid work in the UK, shows the total number of people in employment, including the self-employed, is actually about 600,000 below the level just prior to the pandemic.https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/8437835/embed?auto=1A Flourish chart
It has gone from about 33.1 million between December 2019 and February 2020 to 32.5 million in the latest figures from September to November 2021.
The proportion of working-age people in employment is also lower than it was in early 2020, falling from 76.6% to 75.5% in this period.
The Prime Minister did use the statistics correctly during Prime Minister’s Questions on 19 January, saying “we have more people, more employees on the payroll now, than there were before the pandemic began,” in contrast to his previous appearances at the despatch box.
The record still needs to be corrected
We have contacted the Prime Minister, the Cabinet Secretary and Downing Street no fewer than six times asking the Prime Minister to correct the official record with regards to his previous statements.
They have not taken the opportunity to do so.
The Ministerial Code states: “It is of paramount importance that Ministers give accurate and truthful information to Parliament, correcting any inadvertent error at the earliest opportunity.
“Ministers who knowingly mislead Parliament will be expected to offer their resignation to the Prime Minister.”
The reality reveals a very disturbing statistic:
Low unemployment masks largest fall in labour force participation among over-50s since records began “Urgent action” needed at Budget to prevent living standards crisis for older people.
This morning’s Labour Market Statistics, covering October 2021 to January 2022, continue to disappoint. A further sharp fall in unemployment, now close to its pre-pandemic record, has masked a further growth in ‘economic inactivity’ as the labour force has continued to shrink overall. There are now 550 thousand fewer people aged over 50 in the labour market than before the crisis began, which is the largest fall over a two year period in at least thirty years (when comparable records began in 1992). This is being driven by slightly larger falls in participation for older women – down by 290 thousand – than for older men. Employment overall remains stuck at 600 thousand below where was on the eve of the pandemic; and because employment was growing for the decade before the crisis, IES estimates that there are now 1.1 million fewer people in the labour market overall than there would have been had those pre-crisis trends continued. Three fifths of this gap is explained by fewer older people in work, especially older women.
Separate earnings data published today also shows that ‘real’ pay, after adjusting for inflation, continues to fall year on year, for the third month in a row. However relatively high nominal pay – which rose by 4.1% on the year – has somewhat cushioned the blow of rising prices. Overall, real pay is down by 0.7% on this time last year.
Commenting on the figures, IES Director Tony Wilson said: “People shouldn’t be fooled by the fall in headline unemployment in today’s figures. Unemployment is falling because people are leaving the labour force at a worryingly high rate, with one hundred thousand fewer in the labour market than just three months ago. Older people are leading this exodus, with half a million fewer people aged over 50 in the labour market than two years ago. This is the largest fall since comparable records began thirty years ago, and is being particularly driven by fewer older women in work. This is happening in spite of continued record vacancies, and the tightest jobs market for employers in at least fifty years.
“With inflation rising, real pay falling and fewer people in work, we need urgent action at the Budget this month to boost employment and earnings, particularly for older people out of work. Employers need to step up too, and make sure that jobs are advertised and designed in ways that are accessible and inclusive for older people. Separate analysis published this week shows that more the vast majority of those older people who have left work are not on state benefits and are relying on their own savings or family to get by. So we also need to ensure that employment support is open to all older people out of work, not just those on Universal Credit or other benefits.”
The full IES labour market briefing will be circulated later today, you can sign up for our email list here: https://www.employment-studies.co.uk/news-press/ies-news-email
About IES: The Institute for Employment Studies (IES) is an independent, apolitical, international centre of research and consultancy in public employment policy and HR management. It works closely with employers in all sectors, government departments, agencies, professional bodies and associations. IES is a focus of knowledge and practical experience in employment and training policy, the operation of labour markets, and HR planning and development. IES is a not-for-profit organisation. www.employment-studies.co.uk
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