When Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016, economists, business leaders, trade experts and international organisations issued a long list of warnings. They warned of weaker economic growth, increased trade barriers, labour shortages, investment uncertainty and rising costs for businesses and consumers.
For many Leave campaigners, these predictions were dismissed as “Project Fear”. Voters were told that Britain would quickly strike better trade deals, regain control of its borders, slash red tape and unlock a new era of prosperity.
A decade later, it is difficult to argue that the warnings were entirely misplaced.
The UK’s economy has not collapsed, as some of the more dramatic forecasts suggested. But Brexit has unquestionably imposed significant costs on businesses, workers and consumers. The tragedy is that these costs are now being borne not only by those who voted Leave but by everyone living in Britain.
The evidence is substantial. The UK’s trade with its largest and closest market became more complicated overnight. New customs declarations, regulatory checks and export paperwork created barriers that simply did not exist before Brexit. Thousands of small businesses stopped exporting to Europe altogether because the bureaucracy became too expensive and time-consuming.
Investment has also suffered. Businesses generally prefer stability and predictable access to markets. Brexit introduced years of uncertainty followed by permanent barriers to trade. Studies by independent economic researchers have repeatedly found that business investment in Britain has lagged behind comparable economies since the referendum.
The labour market has felt the effects too. Freedom of movement ended, reducing the supply of workers in sectors that had long depended on European labour. Agriculture, hospitality, food processing, social care and the NHS all experienced recruitment difficulties. Employers often found themselves unable to fill vacancies despite offering higher wages.
Consumers have paid the price through higher costs. Brexit is not solely responsible for the inflationary pressures Britain has experienced in recent years, but economists widely agree that additional trade barriers have increased the cost of importing goods and exporting products. Those costs inevitably feed through to prices on supermarket shelves and household bills.
Perhaps most frustrating is that many of these outcomes were not unforeseen consequences. They were explicitly predicted before the referendum.
Economists warned that leaving the single market would reduce trade. Trade has become more difficult. Businesses warned that new border checks would create costs. They did. Employers warned about labour shortages if freedom of movement ended. Those shortages emerged. The broad direction of travel was identified long before a single vote was cast.
Yet during the campaign, expertise itself became a target. One of the defining moments came when leading Brexit supporter Michael Gove declared that “people in this country have had enough of experts.” It was a remark that captured a wider mood in which evidence and specialist knowledge were often portrayed as elitist obstacles to popular will.
Democracy requires voters to make choices. But it also requires those choices to be informed by facts. The Brexit debate became a lesson in what can happen when emotional appeals, simplistic slogans and promises of easy solutions overwhelm detailed analysis and evidence.
None of this means that every Leave voter acted irrationally. Many were motivated by concerns about sovereignty, immigration, democratic accountability or dissatisfaction with the political establishment. Those concerns were real and deserved to be heard.
However, it is becoming increasingly difficult to deny that the economic trade-offs highlighted before the referendum have materialised in significant ways.
Britain cannot change the result of the referendum. Brexit is now a political reality. The challenge facing policymakers is how to minimise the damage and rebuild closer practical cooperation with our European neighbours where it serves the national interest.
But one lesson should never be forgotten. When experts, businesses and economists issue warnings based on evidence, dismissing them as scaremongering may feel satisfying in the moment. The consequences, however, can last for generations.
And today, whether we voted Leave, Remain or were too young to vote at all, we are all helping to pay the bill.
