A person with no educational qualifications had around 2 times the odds of voting for either the Conservatives or Reform UK than someone with a university degree or higher.
A major new study has delivered an uncomfortable verdict for right-wing movements in Britain and the United States: hostility to immigration and diversity is most strongly associated not with poverty, but with low levels of education.
Research published by the independent National Centre for Social Research (NatCen) finds that educational attainment is now the single most powerful predictor of support for right-wing parties in the UK, eclipsing income, job security and other commonly cited explanations.
According to NatCen’s Demographic Divides report, people with qualifications below A-level are more than twice as likely to support right-wing parties such as the Conservatives or Reform UK compared with those who hold a university degree.
The researchers are explicit about the strength of the relationship. “A person with no educational qualifications had around two times the odds of voting for either the Conservatives or Reform UK than someone with a university degree or higher,” the report states. Crucially, this pattern persists even after accounting for financial precarity. In other words, the effect of education remains even when income and economic insecurity are stripped out.
“If one wanted to predict whether a person voted for parties of the right in the UK,” the report adds, “knowing their educational background would give them a very good chance of making a correct prediction.”
Graduates increasingly resistant to the right
The findings underline a growing problem for right-wing movements: they are struggling to gain traction among graduates. Higher education now appears to act as a powerful buffer against the narratives that drive anti-immigration and nationalist politics.
This pattern is not unique to Britain. In the United States, people with a high-school education or lower were found to be roughly twice as likely as college graduates to support Donald Trump over Kamala Harris in the 2024 election. As in the UK, the right finds itself disproportionately backed by voters with fewer formal qualifications.
As the report notes: “Right-wing movements in both countries share a common difficulty in gaining support among those who have been through higher education and obtained a degree.”
Education and attitudes to diversity
Where the UK stands out is the extent to which education shapes views on race, diversity and immigration. NatCen found that educational divides on these issues are sharper in Britain than in the US.
In the UK, 65% of people educated to degree level or above believe diversity strengthens society. Among those educated to A-level or below, that figure collapses to just 30%. The contrast is stark, suggesting that scepticism towards diversity is overwhelmingly concentrated among those with lower educational attainment.
The same pattern appears in attitudes to racial inequality. When asked whether white people benefit from advantages in society that Black people do not have, 60% of people with a university degree in both the UK and the US said “a great deal” or “a fair amount”. In Britain, only 30% of people with qualifications below A-level agreed. In the US, the figure was higher but still lower than among graduates, at 50%.
Immigration hardlines and low attainment
Views on immigration follow the same trajectory. In the UK, 55% of people with below A-level qualifications said immigrants living in the country without permission should not be allowed to stay. Among degree holders, that figure fell to 36%.
In the US, the gap is narrower but still present: 40% of those educated to high-school level or below opposed allowing undocumented immigrants to stay, compared with 32% of university graduates.
These findings undermine the frequent claim that anti-immigration sentiment is primarily driven by economic hardship. While financial insecurity plays a role, education emerges as the far more decisive factor, particularly in Britain.
Different foundations, different politics
The report also highlights important differences between right-wing politics in the UK and the US. In America, education is only one factor among many. Ethnicity, gender, religion, geography and economic insecurity all play a significant role in predicting support for Trump, with white voters, men, rural residents and those “just meeting their expenses” more likely to back him.
Alex Scholes, research director at NatCen, said the contrast helps explain why political polarisation takes different forms on either side of the Atlantic.
“Right-wing politics in the UK and the US are often compared,” he said, “but our findings show they are built on different foundations.
“In Britain, education stands out as the most important dividing line, particularly on immigration and diversity. In the US, support for the right reflects a much denser mix of identities, including ethnicity, religion, gender, age and economic insecurity.”
An awkward truth for the right
Taken together, the findings present a deeply awkward truth for right-wing movements that frame themselves as the voice of the “ordinary” public. Their strongest base of support is not the economically marginalised per se, but those with lower educational attainment and their weakest constituency is the university-educated.
As Britain becomes an increasingly graduate society, that trend poses a long-term structural problem for parties whose appeal rests on opposition to immigration and diversity. Education, it seems, does more than open doors to employment. It also opens minds and closes them firmly to the modern right.
