Office for Budgetary Responsibility summary:
The new trading relationship between the UK and EU, as set out in the ‘Trade and Cooperation Agreement’ (TCA) that came into effect on 1 January 2021, will reduce long-run productivity by 4 per cent relative to remaining in the EU.
Both exports and imports will be around 15 per cent lower in the long run than if the UK had remained in the EU.
New trade deals with non-EU countries will not have a material impact, and any effect will be gradual (see our 2018 Discussion paper for more detail). This is because the deals concluded to date either replicate (or ‘roll over’) deals that the UK already benefited from as an EU member state, or do not have a material impact on our forecast. An example of the former is the UK-Japan ‘Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement’ – which largely mirrors the agreement Japan signed with the EU in 2019 – where the Government’s economic impact assessment suggests that it will increase the UK’s GDP by 0.1 per cent over the next 15 years.
The Government’s new post-Brexit migration regime will reduce net inward migration to the UK. We assume that these changes will lower the future size of the population and also reduce the labour market participation rate by a small amount (due to the population effect being concentrated among those of working age).
Over to Mr Gove.
Who still believes the propaganda spokespeople?
Brexit had a life to it until the Tories killed it.
Douglas James
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