How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic: Responses to the most common skeptical arguments on global warming

Below is a complete listing of the articles in “How to Talk to a Climate Skeptic,” a series by Coby Beck containing responses to the most common skeptical arguments on global warming. There are four separate taxonomies; arguments are divided by:

• Stages of Denial,
• Scientific Topics,
• Types of Argument, and
• Levels of Sophistication.

Individual articles will appear under multiple headings and may even appear in multiple subcategories in the same heading.

Stages of Denial

1. There’s nothing happening
   1. Inadequate evidence
      • There is no evidence
      • One record year is not global warming
      • The temperature record is simply unreliable
      • One hundred years is not enough
      • Glaciers have always grown and receded
      • Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
      • Mauna Loa is a volcano
      • The scientists aren’t even sure
   2. Contradictory evidence
      • It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
      • Antarctic ice is growing
      • The satellites show cooling
      • What about mid-century cooling?
      • Global warming stopped in 1998
      • But the glaciers are not melting
      • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
      • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
      • Sea level in the Arctic is falling
      • Some sites show cooling
   3. No consensus
      • Global warming is a hoax
      • There is no consensus
      • Position statements hide debate
      • Consensus is collusion
      • Peiser refuted Oreskes
2. We don’t know why it’s happening
   1. Models don’t work
      • We cannot trust unproven computer models
      • The models don’t have clouds
      • If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
      • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
   2. Prediction is impossible
      • We can’t even predict the weather next week
      • Chaotic systems are not predictable
   3. We can’t be sure
      • Hansen has been wrong before
      • If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
      • The scientists aren’t even sure
      • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
3. Climate change is natural
   1. It happened before
      • It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      • The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      • Greenland used to be green
      • Global warming is nothing new!
      • The hockey stick is broken
      • Vineland was full of grapes
   2. It’s part of a natural change
      • Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
      • Mars and Pluto are warming too
      • CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      • The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
      • Climate is always changing
      • Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      • The CO2 rise is natural
      • We are just recovering from the LIA
   3. It’s not caused by CO2
      • Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      • Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      • There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      • Mars and Pluto are warming too
      • CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      • What about mid-century cooling?
      • Geological history does not support CO2′s importance
      • Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      • It’s the sun, stupid
4. Climate change is not bad
   1. The effects are good
      • What’s wrong with warmer weather?
5. Climate change can’t be stopped
   1. Too late
      • Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
   2. It’s someone else’s problem
      • Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
      • The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
   3. Economically infeasible
      • Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster

Scientific Topics

1. Temperature
   • There is no evidence
   • The temperature record is simply unreliable
   • One hundred years is not enough
   • Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
   • What’s wrong with warmer weather?
   • It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
   • Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
   • The satellites show cooling
   • Global warming stopped in 1998
   • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
   • One record year is not global warming
   • Some sites show cooling
2. Cryosphere
   1. Glaciers
      • Glaciers have always grown and receded
      • But the glaciers are not melting
   2. Sea ice
      • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
   3. Ice sheets
      • Antarctic ice is growing
      • Greenland used to be green
3. Oceans
   • Sea level in the Arctic is falling
4. Modeling
   1. Scenarios
      • Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
      • Hansen has been wrong before
   2. Uncertainties
      • We can’t even predict the weather next week
      • Chaotic systems are not predictable
      • We cannot trust unproven computer models
      • The models don’t have clouds
5. Climate forcings
   1. Solar influences
      • Mars and Pluto are warming too
      • It’s the sun, stupid
   2. Greenhouse gases
      • Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
      • Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
      • There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
      • CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      • CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
      • What about mid-century cooling?
      • Geological history does not support CO2′s importance
      • Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
      • Mauna Loa is a volcano
      • The CO2 rise is natural
      • Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      • The US is a net CO2 sink
      • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
   3. Aerosols
      • What about mid-century cooling?
      • If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
6. Paleo climate
   1. Holocene
      • It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
      • The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
      • Greenland used to be green
      • The hockey stick is broken
      • Vineland was full of grapes
      • We are just recovering from the LIA
   2. Ice ages
      • CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
      • Global warming is nothing new!
   3. Geologic history
      • What’s wrong with warmer weather?
      • Geological history does not support CO2′s importance
      • Climate is always changing
      • Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
      • If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
7. Scientific process
   • Global warming is a hoax
   • There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
   • There is no consensus
   • The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
   • Position statements hide debate
   • If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
   • The scientists aren’t even sure
   • Consensus is collusion
   • Peiser refuted Oreskes

Types of Argument

1. Uninformed
   • There is no evidence
   • One record year is not global warming
   • One hundred years is not enough
   • There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
   • What’s wrong with warmer weather?
   • Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
   • There is no consensus
   • We cannot trust unproven computer models
2. Misinformed
   • It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
   • The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
   • Antarctic ice is growing
   • CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
   • Greenland used to be green
   • The satellites show cooling
   • Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
   • It’s the sun, stupid
   • The U.S. is a net CO2 sink
   • But the glaciers are not melting
   • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
   • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
   • Vineland was full of grapes
3. Cherry Picking
   • It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
   • Antarctic sea ice is growing
   • The satellites show cooling
   • Global warming stopped in 1998
   • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
   • Vineland was full of grapes
   • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
   • The sea level in the Arctic is falling
   • Some sites show cooling
4. Urban Myths
   • The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
   • CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
   • Greenland used to be green
   • Hansen has been wrong before
   • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
   • Vineland was full of grapes
5. FUD
   • The temperature record is simply unreliable
   • Glaciers have always grown and receded
   • Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
   • Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
   • Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
   • Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
   • Mars and Pluto are warming too
   • It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
   • CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
   • There is no consensus
   • Antarctic ice is growing
   • Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
   • We can’t even predict the weather next week
   • Chaotic systems are not predictable
   • What about mid-century cooling?
   • The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
   • Geological history does not support CO2′s importance
   • Climate is always changing
   • Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
   • Mauna Loa is a volcano
   • Global warming is nothing new!
   • The CO2 rise is natural
   • The hockey stick is broken
   • Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
   • The models don’t have clouds
   • Global warming stopped in 1998
   • If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
   • If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
   • The scientists aren’t even sure
   • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
   • Peiser refuted Oreskes
   • Vineland was full of grapes
   • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
   • Sea level in the Arctic is falling
   • We are just recovering from the LIA
6. Non Scientific
   • Global warming is a hoax
   • Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
   • Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
   • Hansen has been wrong before
   • Position statements hide debate
   • The scientists aren’t even sure
   • Consensus is collusion
   • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s

Levels of Sophistication

1. Silly
   • There is no evidence
   • Global warming is a hoax
   • One record year is not global warming
   • Climate change mitigation would lead to disaster
   • Mars and Pluto are warming too
   • Mauna Loa is a volcano
2. Naive
   • One hundred years is not enough
   • Glaciers have always grown and receded
   • Why should the U.S. join Kyoto when China and India haven’t?
   • It’s cold today in Wagga Wagga
   • CO2 in the air comes mostly from volcanoes
   • We can’t even predict the weather next week
   • We can not trust unproven computer models
   • The satellites show cooling
   • Natural emissions dwarf human emissions
   • The models don’t have clouds
   • Global warming stopped in 1998
   • It’s the sun, stupid
   • If we can’t understand the past, how can we understand the present?
   • The scientists aren’t even sure
   • Vineland was full of grapes
   • Some sites show cooling
3. Specious
   • The temperature record is simply unreliable
   • Climate scientists dodge the subject of water vapor
   • There is no proof that CO2 is causing global warming
   • Current global warming is just part of a natural cycle
   • It was warmer during the Holocene Climatic Optimum
   • The medieval warm period was just as warm as today
   • What’s wrong with warmer weather?
   • Kyoto is a big effort for almost nothing
   • CO2 doesn’t lead, it lags
   • There is no consensus
   • Antarctic ice is growing
   • Warming is due to the Urban Heat Island effect
   • Greenland used to be green
   • What about mid-century cooling?
   • The null hypothesis says global warming is natural
   • Geological history does not support CO2′s importance
   • Climate is always changing
   • Global warming is nothing new!
   • The CO2 rise is natural
   • Historically, CO2 never caused temperature change
   • Hansen has been wrong before
   • Position statements hide debate
   • But the glaciers are not melting
   • If aerosols are blocking the sun, the south should warm faster
   • Antarctic sea ice is increasing
   • Consensus is collusion
   • They predicted global cooling in the 1970s
   • Peiser refuted Oreskes
   • Vineland was full of grapes
4. Scientific
   • Water vapor accounts for almost all of the greenhouse effect
   • Chaotic systems are not predictable
   • The hockey stick is broken
   • Observations show climate sensitivity is not very high
   • Sea level in the Arctic is falling
   • We are just recovering from the LIA

Coby Beck

This article first appeared in Grist: A Beacon in the Smog