Sir Keir Starmer’s leadership of the Labour Party has been defined by distancing himself from Jeremy Corbyn’s tenure. Corbyn was ousted from the party, leading to the departure of many of his supporters. Under Starmer’s leadership, the 2019 manifesto has been dismantled, shedding commitments to extensive nationalisation and increased public spending in favour of displaying fiscal conservatism. This shift seems to have weakened the left-wing faction of the party, which was once dominant, and has strengthened Starmer’s position as a leader, aiming to assure the public of significant changes within the party.
However, the question remains whether the left-wing faction has truly been defeated or if they are merely lying dormant. The Socialist Campaign Group (SCG), a long-established left-wing faction, gained considerable influence during the Corbyn era, with prominent members like Richard Burgon, Dianne Abbott, and John McDonnell. The electoral challenge faced by Starmer means that the SCG, consisting of around 30-something MPs, could potentially hold the balance of power in the next Parliament.
For Labour to secure a majority, they would need a swing similar to what Tony Blair achieved in 1997, which is a challenging prospect. Even the most optimistic advisors concede that a Labour majority, if at all, would likely be below 50 seats. This situation could leave Starmer reliant on the SCG’s support to pass his legislative agenda.
Some insiders within the SCG have adopted a long-term strategy, choosing not to openly rebel against the current leadership to safeguard their seats and exert pressure in the future. While there might be a higher number of left-wing rebels within the party, they have been cautious about public showdowns that could lead to their expulsion ahead of the elections.
Despite potential rebellions, those supportive of Starmer claim that containing them is now easier compared to the early days of his leadership. However, the SCG is not entirely united, with divisions and differing ambitions among its members.
There are indications that a broader segment of the parliamentary party is holding reservations about Starmer’s leadership, extending beyond the SCG. Some suggest that his support within the party might be broad but shallow, with a focus solely on winning the election.
Public spending restrictions imposed by Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, have generated resentment within the party, particularly when exceptions seem to be made for certain projects.
Ultimately, Labour’s current lead in the polls does not guarantee a smooth path to power, as underlying power struggles within the party may come to the forefront after an election victory.
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