The Labour government is set to announce the “most significant changes to our asylum system in modern times,” as it grapples with Channel crossing numbers that remain dramatically higher than when the issue first emerged and which peaked under the previous Conservative administration.
Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood will unveil the reforms on Monday, modelled on the Danish system, which will see people granted asylum in the UK only allowed to stay in the country temporarily. The core aim is to make the UK less attractive to illegal immigrants and make it easier to deport them once their home countries are deemed safe.
The New Danish-Model Plan
The planned changes represent a fundamental shift in Britain’s approach to refugee status.
- Temporary Status:Â Refugee status will become temporary and subject to regular review, a move away from the current system where those granted protection can apply for indefinite leave to remain after five years.
- Removal When Safe:Â Refugees will be removed “as soon as their home countries are deemed safe.”
- Prioritising Public Safety:Â Judges will be required to prioritise public safety over a migrant’s right to a family life or the risk of “inhuman” treatment upon return.
- Tighter Family Reunion Rules:Â The government is also looking at adopting Denmark’s stricter rules on family reunions.
An ally of the Home Secretary stated the change marks “the most significant shift in the treatment of refugees since the Second World War,” moving away from a system where “becoming a refugee equals a lifetime of protection in Britain.”
A Crisis Forged Under the Tories
The drive for reform comes against a backdrop of persistently high small boat crossings. While the government notes that the previous administration “wasted” time and money on the £700m Rwanda scheme, the historical data reveals a profound failure that culminated under the Conservatives.
The following table charts the rise in small boat crossings, clearly illustrating the peak reached in 2022:
Small Boat Crossings: UK Arrivals (2018 – 2023)
| Year | Number of Crossings | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 299 | – |
| 2019 | 1,843 | +516% |
| 2020 | 8,466 | +359% |
| 2021 | 28,526 | +237% |
| 2022 | 45,755 | +60% |
| 2023 | 29,437 | -36% |
Source: UK Home Office Official Immigration Statistics
As the table demonstrates, it was in 2022 that the total number of arrivals reached its absolute highest point under the Tory government. While the 2023 figures saw a decline, the crisis was already entrenched. In 2024, 39,075 people arrived—a number 43% higher than at the same point in 2023 and only 5% lower than the peak in 2022, indicating the problem remains severe.
Criticism and the Human Impact
The proposed reforms have been met with significant concern from refugee charities. Enver Solomon, chief executive of the Refugee Council, warned that the changes will not deter crossings but will “unfairly prevent men, women and children from putting down roots and integrating into British life.”
He argued that stable status is crucial for refugees to build secure, settled lives and contribute to their communities, stating: “When refugees are not stuck in limbo, they feel a greater sense of belonging.”
The government, however, is pressing forward. In a social media video, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood affirmed that the UK will “always be a country that gives sanctuary to people who are fleeing danger,” but insisted the nation must “restore order and control.” The success of this Danish-inspired “negative nation branding” in curbing numbers, while making life more precarious for those granted refuge, will define Labour’s next chapter in managing the Channel crisis.
