The Corporate Media, Reform UK and The Tories Have Created the Biggest Political Con of the Twenty-First Century So Far

Why So Many People Overestimate Illegal Migration to the UK

In recent years, the debate around immigration in Britain has become increasingly dominated by alarmist rhetoric, with much of it focused on so-called “illegal” migration. Despite this narrative dominating headlines and political discourse, actual figures tell a very different story. So why do so many people overestimate the scale of illegal migration to the UK?

The Numbers: A Reality Check

Let’s begin with the data.

According to official figures, 44,125 people were detected arriving irregularly in the UK in the year to March 2024, primarily via small boats crossing the English Channel. This might sound like a large number in isolation, and it often does when presented in media headlines, but in context, it accounts for just 4% of total immigration, which stood at around 948,000 in that same period.

What’s more, nearly all of those small-boat arrivals claimed asylum, making them legal under international law, even if their mode of entry was not.

The idea that the UK is facing a tidal wave of “illegal” migration is simply not supported by the available evidence. In fact, the last official estimate of the UK’s undocumented population was published in 2005, when it stood at approximately 430,000. Later estimates, such as Pew Research’s 2017 projection of between 800,000 and 1.2 million, are now considered methodologically flawed and outdated.

In 2017, the Greater London Authority estimated there were around 397,000 undocumented migrants living in London, but even this included those who had arrived legally and subsequently overstayed their visas, a group often confused with clandestine entrants in the public imagination.

So Why Do People Think the Numbers Are So Much Higher?

1. The Corporate Media’s Obsession with Drama

Mainstream British media, particularly right-leaning outlets such as The Daily Mail, The Sun, and GB News, have relentlessly spotlighted small-boat crossings as emblematic of a “broken” immigration system. News footage of migrants arriving on dinghies has become a staple in tabloids and on television, often framed as a national emergency.

But while the imagery is powerful, it is not representative. These crossings, dramatic as they appear, represent only a fraction of overall migration, yet receive disproportionate coverage.

2. Reform UK and the Weaponisation of Migration

Reform UK, the rebranded Brexit Party led by Nigel Farage, has built much of its political platform around stoking fears about immigration. Farage’s now-infamous “Breaking Point” poster during the EU referendum campaign was just the beginning. In the years since, the party has repeatedly portrayed the UK as being overwhelmed by illegal migrants, despite a lack of evidence to support these claims.

More recently, Reform UK has leaned heavily into the narrative that the government is “failing to control our borders”, using exaggerated figures and dubious sources to reinforce public anxiety. These claims are rarely scrutinised by sympathetic media platforms, many of which amplify the party’s talking points verbatim.

3. The Conservative Party’s Role in Amplification

Despite being in government for over 14 years, the Conservative Party has consistently shifted blame for the state of the immigration system, often using “illegal” migration as a political wedge. Tory ministers frequently point to small-boat crossings as proof of a crisis, even as their own policies have failed to produce measurable change.

The controversial Rwanda deportation scheme, framed as a deterrent, has been a central feature of this strategy, even though no deportations had taken place as of mid-2025. Nevertheless, the scheme has served its political purpose: reinforcing the impression that illegal migration is out of control and that drastic action is needed.

Ironically, by overemphasising irregular arrivals, the government has contributed to the very perception it claims to be countering.

4. Misleading Polls and Public Confusion

According to recent polling, almost half of Britons believe that most immigration to the UK is illegal, a view completely at odds with reality. Most migrants arrive through legal routes, and many of those who are considered “irregular” entered the country legally and later overstayed.

This confusion is further exacerbated by media headlines that blur distinctions between legal asylum seekers, undocumented overstayers, and trafficked individuals.

What the Data Actually Tells Us

The Power of Language

It’s also worth noting how language shapes perception. Terms like “illegal migrant” are politically charged and often applied indiscriminately. Many experts and rights organisations prefer the term “irregular migration”, which more accurately reflects the legal complexity of the issue.

Yet politicians and media outlets often default to more emotive phrasing, sometimes deliberately, to invoke a sense of lawlessness or invasion.

Manufactured Perception, Political Gain

The overestimation of illegal migration in the UK is not a simple misunderstanding, it’s a manufactured perception, sustained by a combination of political opportunism, media sensationalism, and outdated data.

Reform UK benefits from sowing panic; the Conservative Party gains from presenting itself as the only solution; and the corporate media profits from the outrage economy. Meanwhile, the public is left misinformed, and the actual challenges of migration, from integration to housing to visa policy, are drowned out by moral panic.

Until political leaders and media organisations engage honestly with the data, immigration will remain one of the most misunderstood issues in Britain and one of the most cynically exploited.