A claim repeated by senior Conservative politicians that Britain’s welfare bill has exceeded income tax receipts “for the first time ever” has been challenged by independent fact-checkers, who have exposed the statement as incorrect.
The assertion appeared in an “Alternative King’s Speech” published by the Conservative Party and has also been repeated in recent weeks by a number of politicians and commentators. However, analysis by the independent charity Full Fact concludes that while welfare spending did exceed income tax receipts in the 2025/26 financial year, this is far from unprecedented.
According to historical figures compiled from the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), welfare spending has been higher than income tax receipts every year for at least the past 13 years. The figures show that the gap has actually narrowed significantly in 2025/26 and is forecast to reverse from 2026/27 onwards, with income tax receipts expected to exceed welfare spending for the first time since at least 2013/14.
The findings were independently reviewed by the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), which reached the same conclusion.
Tom Waters, Associate Director and Head of the Income, Work and Welfare sector at the IFS, said welfare spending appears to have exceeded income tax receipts throughout the period examined. He added that the notable change is the forecast that income tax will overtake welfare spending from 2026/27 and remain higher for the remainder of the current OBR forecast period.
The origin of the inaccurate claim remains unclear. Similar wording has appeared in statements from Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch, shadow cabinet members, and other politicians. The claim was also repeated by broadcaster Iain Dale in a social media video and appeared in other media coverage before being corrected in at least one publication following contact from Full Fact.
The fact-check also highlights an important point often overlooked in political debate: welfare spending includes the State Pension as well as Universal Credit and a wide range of other benefits. Many people in work receive some form of benefit, while many pensioners and others who are not employed continue to pay income tax. As a result, comparing welfare spending with income tax receipts does not simply reflect the balance between those who work and those who do not.
Full Fact said it contacted the Conservative Party, broadcaster Iain Dale and others who repeated the claim but had not received responses at the time its findings were published.
