In the first decade of the last century, Europe was in turmoil. Russia experienced a revolution in 1905, suppressed by the Czar with the utmost brutality. Workers’ unrest began to escalate again in 1912 after a notorious massacre of striking workers in the Lena goldfields. At the other end of the scale, supposedly liberal Britain was wracked by labour unrest, agitation for female suffrage and colonial battles (especially in Ireland: where the Tories defied the Constitution, openly supported treason and ran guns to Unionists) from 1910. It was called the Great Unrest. It too was repressed with extreme brutality! At the same time, decaying, neo-feudal, imperial giants Russia, Ottoman Turkey and Austro-Hungary, experienced colonial revolts and competition. This was at its apex in the Balkans, where all 3 clashed. “Balkanisation” to this day implies hostile division!
A hungry, new capitalist power in Germany added to this toxic mix, with a mad scramble, largely against the British Empire, but also against France, for colonies and markets in Africa and the Far East. War suited them all. A chance to grab land and capital accumulation, whilst suppressing labour and ethnic unrest in the name of “patriotism” and xenophobia. All sounds too familiar, doesn’t it?
This manifested itself in a whole host of conflicts, civil wars and ethnic cleansings in the Balkans, where mass population exchanges occurred at gunpoint, and a number of international “near-miss” incidents, like the Agadir Crisis (or ”Panthersprung”) of 1911 between France and Germany. These were basically proxy wars, and shadow boxing, for the big imperial states, and the Balkans were prime territory. They sat on the interface of empires, where no unitary state-building had been possible, leaving a patchwork quilt of tribal and ethnic settlement. To this day, Macedonia contains 17 identifiable ethnic groups, including the Avars, whose ancestors invaded the Roman Empire in the 5th century.
In the end, of course, the fragile balancing act collapsed into the bloody carnage of the First World War, on the slim pretext of the assassination of the Austro-Hungarian successor to the throne by a Serbian nationalist. The Great Powers, with some gusto, abandoned their shadow boxing and plunged their peoples into a full-blooded sacrifice to capitalist competition.
A century later, the whole woeful and dangerous dance seems set to take us to the next massive war.
The similarities are striking: an inter-imperialist conflict laid over a mosaic of ethnic and religious struggles, punctuated by more direct incidents. Turkey responded to a momentary violation of its airspace by Russian fighters with the knowledge of NATO’s treaty obligation to militarily support it in the event of war. Turkey has now directly inserted troops into northern Iraq, supposedly in support of Iraqi Kurds, but with the principal aim of destroying the Syrian Kurdish YPG. Plus, a little oil-rich land grab wouldn’t go amiss! The driving impetus this time is not the exploitation of markets, but the acquisition and downward regulation of one: oil. The surfeit of oil, released by the Saudi state to destabilise the global market and restore its geopolitical power, is hammering both the US and Russia by destroying America’s markets and under-cutting Russia’s oil exports out of the market altogether. They both have interests in closing down the exports. All the major capitalist powers are involved, even China, which has an extensive investment base in the regions oil and, even in relative slowdown, the opposite interests to those of the US and Russia. Russia, also, cannot afford to lose its Mediterranean base at Latakiah, its only ice-free port.
Iran, Turkey and Saudi are all sub-imperial powers in the region with their own agendas, often contrary to those of their Great Power sponsors. Iran supports Hezbollah, Assad and Iraq (all largely Sunni or Alawite) and backs up the Houthis in the Yemen. Saudi backs Al Nusra (the official Al Qaida) in Syria and bombs the Houthis in Yemen, whilst Turkey (secretly) and Qatar (more openly) support Da,esh to destabilise Assad and Iraq. Turkey’s main strategic objective is to avoid any unitary Kurdish state on its borders and to prevent the Kurds in Turkey from making common cause with the Left and breaking out of the ghetto. America’s proxy, Israel, is a long term enemy of Iran and its ally, Hezbollah. It seems to have been allowing medical aid to Da’esh and is the only known nuclear power in the area.
The situation on the ground in the destroyed countries of the Middle East and North Africa (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Yemen) is so deeply complex that allies’ proxy armies are fighting each other on the ground whilst their sponsors project a common front! It would take only a small mistake to plunge the whole area, and beyond, into a (potentially nuclear) maelstrom of general war. It is a very dangerous situation. Once again, the war would suit all parties except the poor inhabitants of all countries.
At this point in time, resisting racism and opposing the bombing of Syria are our best methods to disrail the drive to capitalist war
- Support the Stand up to Racism demos in London and Cardiff on 19th March;
- Support the Stop the War Coalition;
- Support local meetings to oppose racism and war. Put pressure on the politicians at all levels!
Tim Nicholls
