In less than a week time, on the 15th of March, the Dutch will head to the polls to determine the course of the Netherlands for the next four years. In this year’s parliamentary elections the battles lines are drawn between the right wing parties, in particular the far-right and anti-Islam MP Geert Wilders of the Freedom Party (PVV) and current Prime Minister Mark Rutte of the liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) – both hoping to top the ballot as leading party[1], and the smaller, more segregated parties on the left. With Wilders leading the polls, and a fair chance of becoming the largest party, the country once known as the most liberal in Europe is rapidly changing in something completely different. If Wilders does triumph in the elections on Wednesday, this would be a devastating blow for the future of the EU, since Wilders is determine to leave the Union. For many Dutch it is clear that a victory for Wilders would change the open and tolerant Netherlands for good.
Who is Geert Wilders?
Far right MP Geert Wilders, founder and leader of the Freedom Party, is known for his anti-Islam and anti-EU policies and consequently is now one of the most controversial politicians in Europe. He stirred up controversy when he asked a crowd if they wanted “fewer or more Moroccans in the Netherlands” at a rally in 2014[2], a statement he quite recently got convicted for. The main policies of the Freedom Party are tailored around ‘Freedom, Independence and the Future’[3] and focus on the “existential problems” faced by Islam, as Wilders proclaimed in an interview with BBC’s John Sweeney[4]. He is openly anti-EU and expressed his hope for a ‘Nexit’ (Netherlands Exit) after the results of Brexit became public, stating that it is “now our turn”[5]. The fact that the majority of the British cast their ballots in favor of leaving the EU and the Americans chose Trump as their President, is a clear indication for Wilders and his supporters that change can happen in the Netherlands as well. The growing support for right-wing and anti-established politicians is for Sophie, Dutch and in her mid-twenties working in Bournemouth, the reason she registered to vote from abroad. A counter vote is important for her, since “Brexit and Trump happened before, people start to think it is possible to have some radical change”.
That voting this year is particularly important is felt among Dutch citizens all around the world. Dutch who are living abroad had the possibility to register to vote and got sent a voting ballot to their residence. This year, a record number of Dutch nationals abroad up to vote for the parliamentary elections[6]. In earlier elections, such as the one in 2012, a small 50.000 Dutch citizens abroad registered. According to The Hague, which coordinates the registration, over 77.500 registered to vote this year. This could be a clear indicator for the importance of voting for many Dutch who do not live in the Netherlands, amongst whom, for example, it is feared that Wilders will become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands. This is also the case for Thijs, Dutch student at Bournemouth University, who said that “we have to vote because otherwise Wilders would have a good chance to win the elections. It seems like radical people [Wilders’ supporters, red.] are more likely to vote and that’s why for me it’s important to vote as well”.
For months, Wilders has been leading the Dutch opinion polls and it seems like he has a fair chance to become the biggest party. This week Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy caught up with Wilders and are now leading[7], many however, fear for a “Brexit and Trump”-effect, where opinion polls are different from the actual election result.
The Dutch electorate in a nutshell
Even though Wilders could become the biggest party in the Netherlands, it is uncertain if he will be able to form a government. In the Dutch electoral system, a leading party can form a majority with 76 of the 150 MP-seats in parliament. No single party ever managed to hit 76 seats and therefore the Netherlands have been governed by coalitions for more than a century. Since almost all the mainstream parties have excluded ruling with the Freedom Party and will do their best to block Wilders, it seems unlikely that he will be able to form a coalition. Rutte, who policy-wise is close to Wilders, announced in the TV program Buitenhof[8] that “the chance that the VVD will govern with the PVV is zero. It’s not going to happen”. Rutte’s comments to rule-out forming a coalition with Wilders lead to a sharp response from Wilders, stating “The arrogance of power. Correct Rutte. On March 15th.”, on Twitter[9]. The results and aftermath of the elections will show how the Dutch politicians really feel about the Freedom Party.
A splintered system
What is striking about the Dutch electoral system is the large amount of parties that participate in the elections. In December the electoral council (Kies Raad) announced that a record number of 81 parties wanted to participate in this year’s elections[10]. Not all those parties managed to participate due to entry conditions, yet the Dutch can choose one of 28 parties on Wednesday[11]. The large amount of parties to chose from makes the Netherlands highly democratic, and one of the main reasons why the small country scores high on the Democracy Index[12]. The downside of many parties is a splintered electorate system, as Thijs points out clearly when I speak with him: “there are probably two, three large parties on the right, and then smaller ones on the left. This segregation makes it harder for the left”.
On the right there are two leading parties, Wilders’ Freedom Party and Rutte’s People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy. On the left however, there are many smaller parties, which makes it harder for the left to compete against the right. For MP Jesse Klaver of the Green Party – also known as the Dutch Justin Trudeau[13] – a reason to unite against the right. In a rally earlier this week he stated: “I would like to appeal to anyone with a left heart. Let us unite!”[14].
Whether the left will be able to compete against Wilders and the leading right is questionable, but it will become clear on the early hours of March 16. Until then, the 28 Dutch parties keep battling for people’s vote.
[1] https://peilingwijzer.tomlouwerse.nl/
[2] https://www.om.nl/onderwerpen/zaak-wilders/
[3] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfv4mAWCaS0
[4]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M6z0XZMvdD8
[5] https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/746199016128421889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
[6] https://nos.nl/artikel/2159639-recordaantal-nederlanders-in-het-buitenland-wil-stemmen.html
[7] https://nos.nl/artikel/2161844-peilingwijzer-vvd-passeert-de-pvv-aan-kop.html
[8] https://www.npo.nl/buitenhof/15-01-2017/VPWON_1265946
[9] https://twitter.com/geertwilderspvv/status/820603965033349122
[10] https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2016/12/22/recordaantal-van-81-partijnamen-bij-kamerverkiezing-a1537929
[11] https://www.tweedekamer.nl/nieuws/kamernieuws/28-politieke-partijen-doen-mee-aan-de-kamerverkiezingen
[12] https://pages.eiu.com/rs/783-XMC-194/images/Democracy_Index_2016.pdf
[13] https://www.buzzfeed.com/laurenstrapagiel/justin-trudeau-jesse-klaver
[14] https://nos.nl/video/2162233-klaver-wij-kunnen-de-grootste-worden.html
By Mirjam Liefbroer
