I have received abusive e-mails from one individual after each of my last two blogs on Dorset Eye. I will not reply directly to that person. But, I do want to stress to other readers that my analysis is non-political. You may disagree with my assumptions, logic and judgments. But, if you do, I hope your argument, like mine, is based on as strong evidence and objective interpretation.
“The Economics Story” is based on my several decades of professional experience as an applied economist in academia, private business, public agencies and the environmental third sector. It is underpinned by economic theories that have been shown to offer clear insight into what happens in the real world. I am an economist, not a capitalist or a communist, or any other ‘ist’. The only ‘ism’ here is realism. In the end, all “stories” have characters, themes or endings that you may or may not like. Recent history shows us that the “story” can be surprising. Against that background, it is useful to have a consistent, yet evolving, assessment against to confront the outcomes.
“The Economics Story” aims to identify evidence that is relevant to the development of the Dorset Economy and to interpret that evidence in order to understand local business conditions and prospects. No one should rely on a single economics “story”. Their point is to provide benchmarks against which to test personal information, situations … and prejudices.
As to our current “story”, recent evidence, as revealed in previous blogs, tells me that the Dorset economy probably performed better in the second quarter 2013 that it has for some time. Moreover, there are indications that this may be the start of a recovery, albeit tentative and unspectacular.
But note:
This does not mean the economy is strong, that all the faults of the last five years have been repaired (debt, housing, banks, markets, policy), or that we can look ahead with certainty.
Also, it does not mean I agree with everything the Bank of England or the Treasury is doing to promote non-inflationary growth or that the pace of behavioural reform (by households, businesses and policy makers alike) is enough to address major structural imbalances.
All it means is that the current evidence points to a modest increase in activity, in spite of all the remaining risks and policy errors. Indeed, the fact that there is some better news and more confidence, despite all the strong headwinds, is the most hopeful sign of all. We cannot forget that we are still in the longest downturn experienced by anyone born after 1930s. There are still major changes to be enacted if we are to have a bright future. I’ll be the first to say if the better outlook seems to be running out of steam again.
Meanwhile, enjoy the long, hot summer.
Professor Nigel Jump, 17th July 2013
