As many of my friends know, I became somewhat of a surprise ‘fan’ of Eurovision in the first decade of the 21st century! Two things combined which meant that it became one of the best things to bet on: the switch from the fairly-predictable, partisan Jury voting system to the extremely-predictable televoting system; and the fact that all the songs were able to be viewed online for months in advance which led to the advent of online polls (some of which proved incredibly accurate!)
Throughout these halcyon days, Eurovision became almost a licence to print money. I say ‘almost’ because it all went wrong in 2006 (more about that in a sec). You could almost devise a formula for who was going to win: I used to spend weeks ‘studying the form’, creating charts of the best polls and the points given by each country over the previous 5 years (the two most important factors), considering the significant effect of diaspora, the need to be in a cluster of friendly neighbouring countries (Scandinavian, Baltic, Balkan, ex-Yugoslav states) and other factors like the type of song, the song’s language, the staging/performance, the running order (surprisingly important) and the ‘Wow’ or ‘uniqueness’ factor. Occasionally, geo-political disputes would have an effect which was also interesting and to be factored-in! Given my fondness for maths, it was actually kinda fun to study it all!
People would sneer and Graham Norton would comment disparagingly about the friendly neighbouring voting and the 12 point awards being so predictable irrespective of the song quality….. but I LOVED that!! For betting purposes, it was ‘music to my ears!’ I’d sometimes advise friends who usually made a few quid. One year, I predicted the top 4 in the right order from a field of 40….. and as you all know, the chances of doing this randomly are 2,193,359/1.
After my ‘studies’ and depending upon the odds, I usually bet on 3, 4 or even 5 countries (with some being ‘covering’ bets to just break even). Over the decade, I made a fair amount of profit – either winning or breaking even each year….. except for 2006.
At the end of 2005, I won decent bets on Andrew Flintoff to be Sports Personality of the Year (backed at 16/1 early in the year) and Shane Ward to win X-Factor (at 8/1) and decided to ‘play up’ those winnings on the 2006 Eurovision. I bet on four countries. They finished 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th! The winner was Finnish band Lordi (the monster-mask-wearing, heavy rock band) who were nowhere in the polls! It emerged that thousands of Lordi’s fans had cheated and voted for Finland routing their votes through the Skype servers of other countries! It proved a very worthwhile ‘sting’ as the band went on to sell millions of records and make a fortune! I lost all the profits from my Flintoff/Ward bets and learned there’s no such thing as a ‘certainty!’
Sadly, by the end of the decade, the halcyon days were over. Stung by criticism of the predictable voting, the organisers changed the system. They introduced the current system where each country’s votes are split 50-50 between televotes and a jury of music industry experts (who seem less partisan than the old juries and genuinely vote based upon the song quality). They changed it and turned it into a song contest, the absolute b*stards!!
I’ve paid very little attention to it ever since – the songs generally range from naff to atrocious – and I’ve not even watched it most years. If I do have any bets, they are very small! However, I had a little look last night and here’s my little fun run-down of the finalists followed by a note on the possible winners/betting (Do Not Read If You Want It All To Be A Surprise!)
Finalists in Running Order:
1. Cyprus: She ‘fell in love with El Diablo!’ So, literally devil-worshipping! If you think this is bad, you wait for the others!
2. Albania: Woman battling wind machine. Best I can say about it.
3. Israel: ‘Set Me Free’….. from this!
4. Belgium: She keeps singing ‘You’re in the wrong place’. She’s not wrong.5. Russia: Novelty rap with empowering message. ‘Be Yourself. Be Strong.’ Decide to put kettle on.
6. Malta: First song with a chance. Resembles previous winning lyrics ‘I’m Not Your Toy’ – she sings ‘I’m not your baby’ and the title ‘Je Me Casse’ translates as ‘I’m outta here!’ Very popular.
7. Portugal: Portuguese geezer in a cowboy hat singing in a high-pitched American accent. I quite like it, but his ‘but maybe not tonight’ will prove prophetic.
8. Serbia: Hints of The Macarena. 3 women battling the wind machine…. and their own hair.
9. United Kingdom: We’ll be lucky to get 10 points.
10. Greece: Quite liked the ‘invisible’ dancers! Probably at least mid-table.
11. Switzerland: Popular and has a chance. ‘Tout L’Univers’ translates as All The Universe. About finding love in a harsh world. High-pitched. Try not to laugh at the arm-waving bit!
12. Iceland: OMG! Fairly popular…. though voters must have confused it for ‘most likely to be members of a cult….’
13. Spain: Spain’s answer to Duncan from Blue. Nowhere in polls. I quite liked it but, for all I know, he could be singing about rhubarb. Amusingly, he ends by simply saying ‘Meh!’
14. Moldova: Naff electropop. ‘Give me some sugar’….. or Prozac.
15. Germany: Kids party entertainers… though you’d want your money back. Enjoy the hand-making-a-V-sign costume sometimes inadvertently presenting the middle finger!!
16. Finland: One of two ‘metal’ bands. Amusingly after the previous song, the lyrics go: “put your middle fingers up!” Lyrics are a rejection of societal norms and religion; an anarchistic celebration of nihilism and ‘getting wasted.’
I BLOODY LOVE IT!
17. Bulgaria: Start reminded me of Joanna Newsom’s song This Side of the Blue which started with my favourite opening line of any song: “Svetlana sucks lemons across from me.” Quite liked it, though it really needs a key change somewhere and a less underwhelming ending!
18. Lithuania: Popular, cheesy, catchy. Kraftwerkesque drumbeat and some kind of Vulcan hand gimmick.
19. Ukraine: Fairly popular (Ukraine does well with friendly votes) but not my thing. Scary singer but loved the ‘athletes running’ backdrop.
20. France: Excellent and very popular song! ‘Voilà’….. the lyrics translate as ‘Here, here, here, here I am, Here I am’. The meaning is ‘here I am with all my faults and imperfections but still worthy of love.’ Bit worried that when she hums along to the music near the end people will think she’s forgotten the lyrics! ’ I LOVE it and hope this or Finland wins!
21. Azerbaijan: Sings M-M-M-Mata Hari like Paul Hardcastle’s N-N-N-Nineteen (a song with great meaning). It seems this song doesn’t have one.
22. Norway: A white angel (with wings) chained by four devils dressed in black. F*ck this sh*t!
23. The Netherlands: Uplifting lyrics of freedom and emancipation. I liked it but won’t do well.
24. Italy: Glam-Rock band. Reminded me of The Darkness. The repetitive line translates as ‘We’re out of our minds but different from them.’ Has some rocking lead guitar and pyrotechnics near the end. Very popular in polls.
25. Sweden: ‘Can you hear a million voices?’ Quite liked it. One I’d sing along to.
26. San Marino: Fairly standard electro-pop with the addition of a rapper half-way through. Quite popular in polls but not for me.So, who might win and what’s the odds?
This year looks very open with a batch of 3 favourites and another batch of 5 or 6 with a chance. The three market leaders are Italy, France and Malta. Italy and France (around 2/1 and 3/1) have good (late) draws, whereas Malta are drawn a little early in 6th so their odds have drifted to around 6/1.
The next batch include Switzerland (7/1) and Ukraine (8/1) followed by Iceland (14/1+) and Finland (16/1+).
Then there’s Portugal, San Marino, Lithuania, Bulgaria and Cyprus (all 33/1 to 80/1).
Probably the big question this year is how will the two rock bands (Italy and Finland) perform compared with the fun, catchy song from Malta and the ballads of France and Switzerland. Metal/Rock is huge in Europe (especially Eastern Europe), so Italy and Finland may do very well. That said, the Jury vote is more likely to favour songs like France, Malta and Switzerland.
I can’t have Ukraine or Iceland, so I’d be surprised if the winner didn’t come from the front three of Italy, France and Malta. That said, I’d give Switzerland, Lithuania and Finland a chance. Can’t see a winning song outside of these six.
Is there a value betting angle? Probably not now (I got on it way too late and all the value has gone). It’d be nice to be on Italy at big odds, but at their current 2/1 they don’t represent much value – albeit that the favourite usually wins these days. They’ve been far from top of the polls but backers know that rock will be popular. France at 3/1 will certainly give you a good run for your money and is, IMO, the best song. Malta at 6/1 is reasonable value but their early draw doesn’t help. I’d say Finland at 33/1 and Lithuania at 80-100/1 are value as each-way bets.
I’ve had tiny Each-Way bets on Lithuania (100/1), San Marino (80/1) and Finland (33/1) and Switzerland (10/1). I’m hoping France might drift to 4/1 at which point I’ll stick a tenner on as I hope it wins. [UPDATE: France drifted overnight from 3/1 to 3.8/1 on Betfair which was good enough and my tenner is duly on!]
I’ll hazard a top 7 prediction (based somewhat on my preference in that I’ll put France top).
1. France
2. Malta
3. Italy
4. Lithuania
5. Switzerland
6. San Marino
7. Finland
Tom Lane
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