On the morning of 30 June 1908, an asteroid or comet exploded in Earth’s atmosphere over the remote Siberian wilderness near the Podkamennaya Tunguska River. The explosion, now known as the Tunguska Event, flattened approximately 80 million trees over an area of 830 square miles. The energy released was equivalent to 10–15 megatons of TNT—about 1,000 times more powerful than the atomic bomb dropped on Hiroshima. Fortunately, the area was sparsely populated, and no human fatalities were recorded. However, had the explosion occurred over a major city, the devastation would have been catastrophic.
Today, as humanity grapples with environmental collapse, climate change, and the depletion of natural resources, some might wonder: could another Tunguska-style asteroid impact serve as an ironic salvation, wiping out human civilisation or forcing a drastic societal reset?
The Reality of an Asteroid Strike
This is not a drill. There is a chance—albeit a small one—that an asteroid could impact Earth within the next decade. The 2024 YR4 asteroid, detected in December 2024, has since climbed to the top of the risk list maintained by astronomers worldwide. While far from an immediate catastrophe, the probability of an impact has doubled from 1.2% in January to 2.3% now, and it remains under close observation.
If an impact were to occur, current estimates suggest it would be at 2:02 pm on 22 December 2032, with potential impact zones ranging from the eastern Pacific Ocean and South America to Africa and South Asia. NASA estimates that 2024 YR4 is between 40m and 90m wide—significantly larger than the 20m Chelyabinsk meteor that exploded over Russia in 2013, injuring 1,500 people due to its shockwave. At the lower end of its estimated size, 2024 YR4 might cause an airburst similar to Tunguska, while at the upper end, it could obliterate a city.
The Impact of Tunguska and a Modern-Day Equivalent
The Tunguska Event remains one of the most powerful asteroid-related incidents in recorded history. The explosion was strong enough to be detected by barometers as far away as the United Kingdom and triggered atmospheric disturbances that lasted for days. If a similar event occurred over a heavily populated area today, the destruction would be unimaginable. A direct hit on a city like New York or London would result in hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of casualties.
However, if such an impact occurred in a remote region or the ocean, the consequences would be different. A deep-sea impact could generate tsunamis, while a land impact could inject vast quantities of dust and debris into the atmosphere, temporarily altering the climate. The latter scenario could have widespread implications for agriculture and global weather patterns.
Could an Asteroid Reset the Planet?
In a darkly ironic twist, some might argue that a significant asteroid impact could serve as a form of environmental correction. Humanity’s relentless industrialisation, deforestation, and carbon emissions have driven Earth into a state of crisis. A catastrophic impact, while devastating in the short term, could—if not globally apocalyptic—curb human excesses and force a new era of sustainable living.
Historical evidence suggests that asteroid impacts have played a role in resetting life on Earth. The Chicxulub impact, which led to the mass extinction of the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, paved the way for mammalian evolution and, eventually, the rise of human civilisation. Could a smaller, less apocalyptic impact serve as a corrective force for a planet ravaged by human activity?
Some scientists and philosophers speculate that an event of this magnitude might be the only force capable of halting humanity’s self-destructive path. Without direct intervention—whether natural or self-imposed—climate change, habitat destruction, and resource depletion seem set to continue accelerating. An asteroid impact could trigger radical shifts in global governance, economic structures, and environmental policies in ways no human-driven initiative ever could.
Preventing the Inevitable
Despite these musings, the vast majority of scientists agree that an asteroid impact is not a desirable means of achieving planetary balance. Efforts are underway to monitor and mitigate threats like 2024 YR4. NASA’s DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test) mission in 2022 successfully altered the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos, proving that asteroid deflection is possible. Future missions may employ kinetic impactors, gravity tractors, or even nuclear explosives to alter the course of a potentially dangerous asteroid.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) and the United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs are already discussing potential countermeasures for 2024 YR4. Should the threat remain by April 2025, when the asteroid disappears behind the Sun, contingency plans will likely be put in place before it becomes visible again in 2028. Scientists remain cautiously optimistic that, with modern technology, a catastrophic impact can be averted.
Cosmic Doom or Salvation?
In summary, the idea that an asteroid impact could serve as a reset for humanity is both unsettling and thought-provoking. While an impact like Tunguska in an uninhabited region might not be catastrophic, a city-wide disaster would bring immense suffering. Any larger event, like the Chicxulub impact, would result in mass extinction.
However, from an ecological perspective, one might wonder whether the planet itself would be better off in the long run. If human civilisation collapses due to environmental mismanagement, resource depletion, or nuclear conflict, would that not be equally devastating?
The true challenge lies in finding ways to correct our trajectory without the need for cosmic intervention. Whether we can achieve this through science, policy, and collective action—or whether we remain on course for disaster—remains the defining question of our time.
For now, humanity holds the power to shape its destiny. Let’s hope we use it wisely, rather than leaving it to the whims of the cosmos.
