The potential for post-election deals between the Conservative Party and Reform UK signals a critical moment in British political history. Alignments between centre-right parties and radical populists have, in other democracies, resulted not in stabilisation but in intensified economic inequality, democratic backsliding, and prolonged institutional decay.
An economic agenda rooted in extreme deregulation, combined with a politics of exclusion and grievance, would threaten Britain’s already fragile social contract. The lessons of history are clear: such shifts come at enormous cost, both to national prosperity and to the health of democracy itself.
A Hard-Right Future: The Economic and Political Risks
Historically, when mainstream conservative parties have sought to accommodate hard-right populists rather than confront them, the result has rarely been moderation.
Across Europe — from Italy’s centre-right alliances with the Northern League to Austria’s coalitions with the Freedom Party. Such alignments have pulled entire political systems further into authoritarianism, division, and instability.
The economic implications are equally grave. Reform UK advocates a programme rooted in radical deregulation, low taxation, and minimal government intervention; a turbocharged extension of the austerity policies that dominated the UK from 2010 onwards.
Should these ideas gain influence through Conservative cooperation with Reform, Britain could plausibly expect:
- Deepened austerity, with new rounds of cuts to already stretched healthcare, education, and welfare systems.
- Accelerated deregulation, weakening worker rights, consumer protections, and environmental standards.
- Rising inequality, as fiscal policy tilts even more heavily towards the interests of the wealthy.
- Increased macroeconomic volatility, as the withdrawal of state support exacerbates cyclical downturns.
Economic history offers clear warnings. Radical low-tax, small-state experiments — most famously in Kansas during Governor Sam Brownback’s administration — have led not to growth, but to fiscal collapse, deteriorating services, and social unrest. Britain’s fragile post-Brexit economy would be highly vulnerable to similar outcomes.
The Political Fabric at Risk
The Conservative Party’s engagement with Reform UK is not simply a tactical question; it is a decision that could reshape the norms and institutions underpinning British democracy.
Farage and his allies represent a populist challenge to constitutional liberalism, characterised by distrust of judicial oversight, hostility to media scrutiny, and a scapegoating rhetoric aimed at immigrants, international bodies, and internal dissenters.
Britain’s unwritten constitutional settlement — dependent on norms of restraint rather than entrenched legal protections — is particularly susceptible to erosion if these attitudes are legitimised within mainstream governance.
International examples are instructive. In Hungary and Poland, centre-right parties initially entered tactical alliances with populists, only to find themselves absorbed into broader authoritarian transformations. Judicial independence was curtailed, press freedoms undermined, and political competition hollowed out.
In Britain, where political trust is already at historic lows, such developments would risk deepening disillusionment, alienating younger generations, and fostering the conditions for more radical and unpredictable political movements.
Learning from History: A Warning Ignored
The Conservative-Reform convergence echoes past moments of democratic failure.
In the 1930s, conservative elites across Europe believed they could control or neutralise radical movements through alliance and co-option. Instead, they legitimised their rhetoric, emboldened their leaders, and facilitated the destruction of liberal democracy.
Though Britain’s institutions are stronger than many of those historical examples, they are not invulnerable.
The post-2016 years — marked by constitutional brinkmanship, polarisation, and declining political trust — have already revealed the limits of Britain’s resilience. Further pressure from a hard-right agenda risks breaching those limits.
An Inflection Point
The 2025 local elections are not merely an administrative contest over council budgets and bin collections. They are a bellwether for Britain’s political future.
The Conservative Party faces a stark choice:
- It can reassert a vision of more cautious governance.
- Or it can seek short-term survival through an embrace of radical populism, at the cost of long-term economic health and democratic integrity.
The economic and political carnage that could result from dragging Britain further into the orbit of Reform UK is not a theoretical concern. It is a historically grounded, empirically supported probability.
The country now stands at a critical crossroads, and the consequences of the path chosen may endure for generations.
