Ever since Donald Trump emphatically lost the 2020 United States General election it has never been too inconceivable to imagine him making another stab at the office of the President. It is clear to see with Trump being the character that he is that for his own ego he would run again simply to say that he won in the end.
This accompanied with the extreme political division that is currently plaguing the United States would create the perfect storm for a return of the Trump administration, which would destroy any progress made from the Biden presidency and return the United States to the even more divided state it was under the original Trump presidency.
This desire to run again from Trump was reiterated in recent weeks from the man himself. When asked at an event for the 9/11 memorial at a New York police precinct if he would run again, he responded by saying “I know what I’m going to do but we aren’t supposed to be talking about it because of campaign finance laws. But I think you’re going to be pleased.” . This kind of language being used by the former President gives and impression of almost certainty that he will run for the office of the presidency again even though he has made no official declaration of a bid.
Although he would almost certainly win the Republican nomination, Trump implying that he is going to run again is a knock to several establishment republican politicians such as Mitt Romney, who almost certainly gave a sigh of relief when Trump left office and had hoped to return to the traditional values of the Republican party. But these traditional establishment conservatives will be forced to get on board the Trump train if they themselves are to get re-elected, with Utah senator Mitt Romney recently admitting in a New York Times virtual event that Trump would win the Republican nomination if he was to run in 2024.
What the polls say
A poll taken in November 2020 by Hill-HarrisX identified that just under half of all voters in the United States would support President Trump running again in 2024. With 75% of registered Republicans supporting the idea as well as 24% of Democrats. These numbers while they are less than 50% supporting him, show that a large portion of the U.S electorate still hold a deep connection to Trump and the type of politics that he represents. A poll conducted in October 2021 by Grinnell college outlined that the same percentage of likely voters would vote for Trump and Biden (40%) .
The fact that the numbers between President Biden and President Trump are so close does not come as a surprise at all. Trump’s populist approach to his politics means that he will always be a popular figure to half of the American population and absolutely hated by the other half. This dynamic in itself is another reason why the United States is entrenched in a state of constant cultural and political conflict domestically and on the international stage. When both sides of the aisle are at war with each other over virtually every piece of policy it is almost impossible to reach a consensus.
With recent decisions made by the Biden administration, such as the catastrophic withdrawal of U.S forces from Afghanistan causing Biden’s approval rating to plummet’ all signs are showing that this could lead to the perfect storm for Trump to announce his candidacy and take the election from the democrats just as he did in 2016. Political website ‘five thirty eight’ having Biden’s approval rating at a measly 43.7%.
It is clear to see that the Republican party is still the party of Donald Trump. He has already begun election campaign style rallies and the type of hype which has been created by him fuelling the fires of his re-election are a way for him to ensure no major Republican figures enter the race and to ensure he keeps his fund-raising going. It is clear to see that Donald Trump is still a major figure within the politics of the United States and he must still be seen as the dominating figure within the Republican party. With the polls showing that whilst he lost the 2020 election, he has maintained his base and the support of roughly half of the country. It must be said that if Trump does indeed end up running for the office of the President of the United States in 2024, he would have a very good chance at winning the presidency let alone the nomination for the Republican party.
His ability to maintain a strong and powerful base even after the loss of the 2020 election must be said to be a credit to Donald Trump but this type of Politics from Trump is a detriment to the political climate within the United States because whenever he is involved in national politics, he just creates more division and hate. If he were to win back the presidency this style of populist politics would remain rife within the United States of America and throughout the globe.
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