In the last four weeks Donald Trump’s numbers have plummeted from having a 23% chance of winning the general election down to merely having a 13% chance at victory, according to the 538 political forecast. The fact that the incumbent president has a less than 1 in 5 chance at winning his re-election bid is unheard of. The last three presidents have all won re-election, but Donald Trump’s campaign is falling apart around him.
The national polls are also proving to be devastating for the Trump campaign. Biden currently holds an 10.5% lead over Donald Trump. This is a massive rise of 3.3% in the last 4 weeks. If the election was held today with Joe Biden holding 52.3% of the national popular vote it would be impossible for Trump to win the election. It further underlines the fact that Donald Trump is going to lose this election unless something drastic happens in the next week that damages Biden. But even if something like that does happen and it costs Biden a few points in the national vote it doesn’t matter because he has gained such a large cushion of votes that it would not severely damage him, along with the fact that 17,000,000 Americans have already voted.When I wrote about the six battleground states four weeks ago Biden held a healthy margin in each of the states especially having an over one percent lead in both Florida and North Carolina. In the past 4 weeks Biden has gone on to further solidify his lead in the polls for each of these six states. North Carolina is historically a very Republican state and 4 weeks ago Biden held a 1% lead in the polls, this lead has increased massively and is now 2.4%. This state alone outlines how badly Donald Trump is performing; in 2016 Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4% he is now losing by 2.4%.Biden has also increased his lead in Florida from 1.3% to 1.4%. This is also a good sign for Biden because it was expected that in the remaining weeks all 6 of these states would narrow in the polls but this is simply not the case. While his lead has fallen from a 7% to 6.3% in Wisconsin his lead has increased in the remaining 3 states. In Pennsylvaniahe has increased his lead from 4.6% to 5.6%, in Arizona he has increased from 3.4% to 4% and finally in Michigan he has increased from 5.2% to 7.2%. The fact that these polling averages have not narrowed is very bad news for Trump, it is beginning to become clear that Trump is on course to lose this election in a landslide.
This electoral college map outlines how the electoral college would look if the results followed current polling averages for each state.
Georgia is no longer a Republican stronghold
Since 1984 the state of Georgia has only voted for a Democratic President once (Bill Clinton in 1992). The state is thought to be a Republican stronghold in the ‘deep south’ of the United States but in recent years due to the changing demographics of the state it is trending towards voting for the Democrats. The city of Atlanta has shifted dramatically towards the Democrats in recent years due to the significant African American population within the Atlanta metropolitan area but until this election this trend towards the Democrats has not been enough to give them a victory within the state. Currently Biden holds a 1.2% lead in the national polling average against Trump in Georgia. If this result was to hold it would be a massive victory for the Biden campaign and would certainly result in a Joe Biden victory. This is because if Georgia votes democrat states such as North Carolina and Florida would also almost certainly vote blue as well. Georgia joins a long list of states such as Arizona, New Mexico and Texas which are trending away from the Republicans due to the changing demographics within the states. It is clear that if Georgia and Texas flip for the Democrats it may signal the end of the modern Republican party as we know it.
Josh PItt
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