I want to be upfront from the start. I am very much in the Russell Brand camp when it comes to voting in the forthcoming election. I have voted in every election since 1987 starting with the Conservatives, moving on to Labour in 1992 and then finally in 2010 I voted for the Green Party. 1987 was a result of knowing very little about politics and merely going along with my parents. Labour was a result of having been at university for 3 years and having read copiously and been teased incessantly for being a Tory amongst a much more perceptive student intelligentsia and then the Green Party because they seemed to represent the only Party voice left who actually seemed to care about people and the future. Party politics, to me, has become nothing more than a cynical attempt to obfuscate reality with hyperbole; lies and manipulation. The Conservatives and New Labour are particularly guilty of this and via the mass media give the impression that ideology is not now up for debate but just small nuances that only excite careerist politicians.
If I do vote it will probably be Green and the latest Ipsos MORI Political Monitor showing just seven in ten (70 per cent) of those certain to vote would now vote for one of the three main parties, down from 82 per cent even at the beginning of 2014 – and 90 per cent in the 2010 general election – at least my vote would have greater relevance. This is especially the case with our much less democratic first past the post voting system. But when considering my perspective I started to become much more interested in the characteristics of those who will be voting in May. In reality there will only be one of two victors as there has been since 1910. The Liberals have formed coalitions along the way but have not enjoyed an out right victory. The most interesting are the new kids on the block: UKIP. Like the Greens they have been painted as primarily a single issue Party and thus do not not appear to represent a serious force come a general election. But whereas the Greens are attracting young (64 per cent of Greens are under 45); female (55 per cent of Greens are women) middle class (61 per cent are ABC1) voters; the demographics of UKIP are very different.
The make up of UKIP voters (most likely to) according to YouGov are
24% – Those who say they are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ right wing
22% – Working class Conservatives
21% – Men over 60
21% – Daily Express readers
20% – Daily Mail readers
18% – Low educational achievers (GCSE/GCE or less)
18% – Semi skilled men
17% – Sun readers
17%- Daily Telegraph readers
16% – Skilled manual men
16% – Women over 60
16% – Men aged 50-59
16% – Household income less than £20000 a year
Those least likely to vote UKIP are:
7% – Household income more than £30000 a year
7% – University graduates
7% – Daily Mirror readers
7% – Voters under 40
6% – Those who say they are ‘slightly left of centre’
6% – Times readers
5% – Voters who voted Labour in 2010
5% – Those who say they are ‘very’ or ‘fairly’ left wing
4% – Independent readers
2% – Black and Asian voters
1% – Guardian readers
- However, this only tells us part of the story. Of the the top 10 marginal seats that UKIP have targeted in May, 8 of them are currently held by Labour. Of those who are most likely to vote UKIP their reasons centre upon feeling ‘left behind’ by the social and economic transformation of Britain and increasingly feel that politicians are not interested in them or their concerns. Thus whereas the middle classes who are disenchanted with the mainstream politicians turn to the Greens the working classes are more likely to vote UKIP. This is also reflected in the different priorities of both sets of voters.
Over four times as many UKIP voters care about immigration compared to the Greens but over seven times more voters care about the environment if a person is intending to vote Green. (A quarter of Labour and half of the Conservatives expressed immigration as a key issue) . Interestingly the middle class Greens are over three times more likely to care about poverty and inequality even though they are less likely to experience that poverty. However, the Party whose voters who show the least concern for the wealth and income differences within UK society are the Conservatives. The only issue in which there is a very close parity is the NHS (‘Britain’s answer to a religion’).
The Establishment party most likely to hemorrhage votes to UKIP are the Conservatives with 45% of those who said they now intend to vote UKIP having previously voted Tory in 2010. In fact the aggregate of all other Parties is less than the Conservatives. However it is in marginal seats where this will have the most effect and therefore could make little difference to the overall number of seats allocated to either the Conservatives or Labour. The fascinating part will be the post election alliances between the parties with a coalition between the Conservatives and UKIP on the one hand and Labour; the Lib Dems; the SNP and the Greens more likely on the other. With this outcome we would start to see a more explicit split in policy terms with almost all of them operating within a neo liberal paradigm. Not good for democracy but better than we have now.
One last point though is that if UKIP do become a player in the short to medium term in British politics it will serve to divide not unify. With the likes of Nick Griffin showing their allegiance it is indeed worrying times for voters and non voters alike. The future of this country will be less about the ballot box but the growing animosity within the population based primarily upon social class and age. Worrying times.
Nick Griffin voting UKIP: Former BNP leader backs Nigel Farage
Douglas James
