Both The Telegraph and The Guardian are reporting that their polls are suggesting that over the last month those who were for Brexit are turning towards the Remain case. Since mid March the polls have almost entirely reversed from 52% – 43% in favour of Brexit to 55% – 42% in favour of Remain. The older members of the public (pensioners); Tories and men are switching quite dramatically. Why is this? In such a relatively short time the Bexit argument appears to have lost many and the Remain case has become more attractive.
Some might say – ignore the polls – look at what happened with the 2015 general election. They may be right but the pollsters have learnt from that and do not want egg on their face again. They have become more sophisticated and are using digital technology much more than before. The samples are easier too as specific groups are being targeted.
It could be an attempt to ensure that people turn out – especially the Telegraph who support Brexit – but if this data shows the gap as any wider then people will start to think ‘what’s the point?’.
But they could be right. It could be because the argument for Brexit is more about leaving EU but not about the after. Most people don’t like risk taking and leaving the EU is an obvious risk. The argument provided is generally monolithic and without a variety of alternatives.
It could be because no matter how much Nigel Farage believes he is the cream in reality most people don’t appear to trust him. Alongside him are the likes of Boris and Michael Gove and Nigel Lawson (who lives in France) – a personality cult if ever there was one. They have made it simple – too simple. The EU and some prominent personalities is about it. Where are the ideas? Where is the enthusiasm to present the future? Blueprints of hope?
Can they pull it back. Of course they can. But they have less than a month now to create a positive response that counters the fear put across by Cameron and Osborne. They will need lots of people to stand up from different political perspectives and shout out ‘this is what we want to see next’. Practical steps.
We will have to receive guarantees that the UK will not be handed to Boris and Nigel to broker their own deals. That would be as undemocratic as the European Commission – actually it would be a lot worse.
Many people will be angry either way but they will only have themselves to blame. It might just be the time to be proactive with our imaginations folks. That could still swing it one way or the other.
Douglas James
