Warning signs
This heat!
Wow!
Here in the UK some of us are enjoying it. It feels like a REAL summer.
But it’s a warning sign.
It’s not unique. It’s not 1976, not to be repeated for another forty-six years. It’s part of a trend.
What does the trend tell us?
It tells us it’s time to begin the transformation of our world….
Returning to normal
A lot of us are desperate for a ‘return to normal’. After Brexit, Covid, the cost of greed crisis and continuing war, can’t we please go back to how it was?
It’s a natural desire – but don’t let that desire deceive you.
Normal is gone. It’s over. Kaput.
We’ve only ONE choice left:
????   managed radical change
OR
????   chaos.
Chaos
What will chaos look like?
I’m not sure it looks great.
The International Panel on Climate Change have suggested some ‘plausible worst case scenarios’ – but even these seem to keep falling behind the curve.
I’d like to suggest one of my own.
Climate change – Plausible worst case scenario
2022
2019, 2020 and 2021 were ominous – but they barely touched the surface.
Expect more heatwaves, storms, floods, droughts. Watch as the Arctic and Antarctic continue to melt.
Coral Reef death escalates.
2032
Ice caps and glaciers lose cohesion. Water sources evaporate. Heatwaves, droughts and soil loss ratchet up.
Climate famines hit Africa, South Asia, South and Central America. Water is now the primary cause of war.
2042
Desertification of Africa, central China, central United States, Mexico and Australia gains speed.
Governance in these continents/nations becomes erratic as populations panic. Climate migration destabilises borders. Hunger is now a global phenomenon.
2052
Heat kills.
Sea level rises outstrip predictions. South-east Asia loses 80% of agricultural land. Worldwide crop cultivation falters.
‘Climate-secure’ regions (Canada, Russia, north China, northern Europe) fortify their borders – but endure storms, droughts and fires.
2062
Oceanic currents become unpredictable. Superstorms multiply.
Human populations reach levels of high anxiety. Governments incite ‘distraction’ wars.
Dictatorial regimes gain ascendancy.
Large animal die-back commences.
Pollinators diminish.
World-wide food shortages.
2072
Fortress Britain gets temporarily colder as Gulf Stream fails, but there’s insufficient fuel and food for a frightened population.
Worldwide hunger and heat death exceed 3 billion over 10 year period.
Satellite photos reveal flotillas of human and livestock corpses in Atlantic Ocean.
2082
Summer temperatures in Africa, India, Australia, Middle East and Central America become unsurvivable: 50-60 degrees. All useful rainfall ceases and these regions transition to dustbowls and deserts. What remnants of forests there were, burn.
2092
Animal and crop die-back.
Mass human death.
Social panic and state militarisation. Rationing within nations. Migrant exterminations. Technological civilisation now struggles to survive. Supply chains for food and fuels fail.
2102
Storms, droughts, fires and lack of pollinators harm remaining crop yields, even in the north. UK, northern Europe, Russia, north China, Canada and Alaska are becoming unlivable.
2112
Final extinction event of all large lifeforms draws toward completion. Small numbers of humans survive on stored food in purpose-built shelters near the poles.
Resource banditry and disease soon wipe them out.
2122
The Long Scorch.
God (if there is a god) pronounces her experiment with Life on Earth over.
Terra: soon to be another lifeless cinder in the sky.
Optimism
That’s it.
A plausible worst case scenario.
There’s increasing evidence to support its plausibility. For pointers, take a look at my article on ‘Why we should be scared’. Some people on Twitter have said that the scenario I’ve described above is over-optimistic. That we’re already seeing 2032 in 2022 – and that things will speed up from here on in.
The thought that they may be right fills me with horror.
We’d better begin that ‘managed radical change’ soon – before it’s all too late.
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