It used to be said that a week is a long time in politics. In the last fortnight that timescale has been savagely reduced! Almost all that was solid has melted into mist. Farage resigned from UKIP; Boris Johnson stabbed in the back by “Macbeth” Gove (himself unceremoniously dumped shortly thereafter). The new Tory leader, Teresa May (less than four hours before this was penned!), is making noises about not paying off the “national debt” by 2020 (where is the rationale for austerity now?) and about making Britain less unequal. The scale of the Brexit revolt has scared the daylights out of them. To quote Big Daddy, there is a “distinctive odour of mendacity”!
Just at the moment when Labour should be homing in for the kill, the Fabian Society(or elements of it) has launched its attack on the Left. The idea seems to have been to have used the EU Referendum (WHATEVER the result) to launch a snap coup to topple Corbyn before the Chilcot enquiry release showed the electorate what a bunch of fabricating warmongers Blair and his Fabian allies really were. Over 60 of the current Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP) were around and voted for the Iraq War. Many are unrepentant.
The Chicken Coup, as it has been caricatured, failed in it’s primary target. Corbyn showed an unexpected resilience and dug in. Plan B, in this unfolding shambles, was to use the unions to force out Corbyn in exchange for promising some Left policies (easily forgotten later). The unions were not so easily duped. So the latest Plan is to go for the leadership contest, though not on terms favourable to Jeremy. The main effort remains to keep Corbyn off the ballot, in spite of the 18-14 vote by the NEC, or at least put him at a disadvantage. The rebels may attempt a court case; and a new 6 month rule tries to exclude from the election over 100,000 new members, many of whom joined solely to bolster Jeremy.
In this shifting quicksand, there are a number of possibilities: Jeremy is likely to win any fair ballot, as his last margin was 60/40. Since then, in spite of considerable internal sabotage, the party has done much better than the majority of the PLP either expected or wanted. It has won Mayoral and By-Elections, local elections and convinced a vast majority of its member to vote Remain. It has also inflicted considerable damage on Tory measures. Even the exclusion of new members is no guarantee of a right wing victory.
If Jeremy wins, the balance of forces remains exactly the same. It can only be resolved by either the re-selection of rebel MPs or the splitting of the party. The rebels are already looking into the mechanics of splitting, the ownership of the “Labour Party“ logo, financing etc. The very well off owner of Hull FC has, apparently, offered considerable funding for a “centre” split, and anti-May Tories are considered to be interested. Such a split would likely not carry union support with it, but it would certainly give May an opportunity to call a snap election to capitalise on the chaos.
If he loses, either he will have to himself lead a factional split or, more likely I fear, submit himself to the victor in the interests of “party unity”. This would be a disaster for the Left and likely lead to a mass disillusionment and collapse in Labour membership. For this reason, comrades in the Labour Party and outside need to support all and any initiatives to ensure a Corbyn victory. Jeremy has opened up a left space which offers working class people an avenue for their aspirations. Its closure would lead to massive disillusionment. However, all comrades need to be aware of the possibilities and to understand that extra-parliamentary action is key to supporting the Left. It may be necessary to rebuild an apparatus almost from scratch.
We need to work together in lobbies, demos etc, but also to deepen and support class struggle in the workplaces. Victories for the Teachers and Junior Doctors would hit the Tories hard and help radicalise the mood in the wider community. This would also help in terms of Jeremy’s re-election and dealing with the potential sell out by the Fabians and their allies. Labour Party comrades need to ask themselves what sort of party they want to (re)build and inhabit. Those outside the party need to consider how they will work with and relate to Labour, whatever the outcome.
Four hours IS a long time in politics: I have had to rewrite this article 3 times as events change. If anything changes before you read it, my apologies!
Tim Nicholls
