As it stands Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden maintains his lead in the polls over incumbent Republican president Donald Trump. According to the polls Joe Biden currently has a 77% chance of beating Donald Trump and claiming the white house and in the national polling averages Biden holds a 7.2% lead over Trump, a rise of 0.5% in a week. While it is true that the presidency can be won without winning the popular vote, as was seen with Trumps victory in 2016 when he only gained 46% of the vote, it is only lost in these cases by a few percentage points. A lead on election day of 7.3% nationally would almost certainly hand Joe Biden the election.
There are roughly six states in which the election will be decided these are: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. It is absolutely vital for Donald Trump that he does not lose the states of Floridaand Arizona because in that scenario a path for a trump victory would be very limited. As it stands according to the polls Donald Trump is set to lose the election. Trump currently trails Biden by 7% in Wisconsin, 1.3% in Florida, 4.6% in Pennsylvania, 1% in North Carolina, 5.2% in Michigan and 3.4% in Arizona. This is devastating for Trumpand if these numbers hold Trump has no chance of winning the election. He needs to win Florida, Arizona and North Carolina to even have a chance at winning the election and as it stands it is not possible for him.
Realistically Trump will win Florida due to the popularity of the republican governor along with his general popularity from within the state. But all 5 other states as it stands will go to Joe Biden, his appeal to the working class people of the rust belt and the fact he was born in Pennsylvania all help him in the region along with the auto bailouts that saved thousands of jobs in the area under the Obama administration.
Figure 1: created on YAPMS.com. Electoral map prediction as it stands.
As a candidate Joe Biden is much more liked than his opponent with an 10% better approval rating from pollsters YouGov. It is clear how recent events such as the tragic death of George Floyd and the covid-19 pandemic have damaged Trump and it would be fair to say that if these events hadn’t taken place he would most likely have been in a much better position to win the election, but his poor handling of both the black lives matter protests and the covid-19 pandemic have left large swathes of the United States feeling as though he has failed them as a president and failed to deliver on his promises and especially his promise to increase employment, which fell to an all-time low of 51% employment in April of 2020. Trumps violent far right rhetoric has severely damaged him in the polls in recent months and it is clear with recent events such as his nomination of a right leaning judge to the supreme court that he is now simply attempting to cling on to whatever power he has left.
The importance of Florida
Florida Is a state which is always close, and in 2016 was decided by a mere 1% which was the same margin by which Obama won the state in 2012. In the last 80 years the president has only lost Florida and gone on to win the election twice; in 1992 where Bill Clinton won the presidency, but George H. W. Bush won the state of Florida and in 1960where JFK won nationally but lost Florida to Nixon. This is a state that Trump must win, the election map as it stands would not provide a route for victory for Trump if he loses Florida. Even with Trump currently Trailing in Florida he will most likely win the state with the undecided voters choosing to swing in his favour but I do not believe that this will be enough for him to win the election, his polarization of the ethnic minorities will lead higher turnout for the democrats and ultimately a Joe Biden victory.
Figure 2 2016 election map in Florida
Josh Pitt
