George Orwell’s 1984 serves as a stark warning against the dangers of political manipulation, the distortion of truth, and the erosion of international alliances. The latest developments in global security, particularly concerning former US President Donald Trump’s stance on NATO and isolation from Europe, demonstrate how Orwell’s fears about isolationism, shifting allegiances, and the weakening of cooperative defence structures are becoming a reality.
The Undermining of Collective Security
In 1984, Orwell depicts a world divided into three superstates—Oceania, Eurasia, and Eastasia—locked in a perpetual state of war. These blocs operate on fluid alliances, where today’s ally can quickly become tomorrow’s enemy, mirroring the volatile nature of contemporary geopolitics. This concept is best exemplified in the Party’s frequent shifts between alliances with Eastasia and Eurasia, forcing citizens to forget previous allegiances through the use of doublethink.
Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw the US from NATO or to withhold support from member states that fail to meet defence spending targets exemplify this precarious instability. His reluctance to commit to European security reflects a shift towards a more insular, self-interested approach to international relations, which could lead to the fragmentation of long-standing alliances and create an environment ripe for conflict. Much like in 1984, where the Party ensures that no superstate can ever gain a definitive advantage, the erosion of NATO’s unity ensures that Western nations remain vulnerable to larger, more aggressive adversaries.
The Manipulation of Truth and Historical Revisionism
Orwell’s concept of doublethink, where contradictory beliefs exist simultaneously in the minds of the public, is evident in how Trump’s rhetoric on NATO has evolved. While he has claimed to prioritise American strength and security, his actions—such as inviting Vladimir Putin to the US for talks and downplaying Russian aggression—contradict the traditional Western stance of deterring adversarial powers. This inconsistency fosters distrust among allies and echoes Orwell’s warning about leaders who manipulate narratives to serve their own agendas.
The Party in 1984 engages in constant historical revisionism, embodied in the slogan, “Who controls the past controls the future; who controls the present controls the past.” This philosophy is reflected in Trump’s approach to NATO, where he has reframed European reliance on US military support as an unfair burden rather than a long-standing cooperative effort that has maintained global stability for decades. Much like the Party erasing records of past alliances to suit its immediate needs, Trump’s revisionist approach threatens to dismantle established diplomatic frameworks, leaving Europe vulnerable to external threats.
The Rise of Authoritarian Tendencies
One of the most significant themes in 1984 is the concentration of power in the hands of a few, facilitated by a weakened, divided opposition. As European nations scramble to address their lack of military preparedness, they are left in a position of uncertainty, reliant on the shifting policies of an unpredictable US administration. Trump’s America-first doctrine, which prioritises domestic concerns over international cooperation, echoes Orwell’s warnings about nationalism being used as a tool to justify isolationism and authoritarian control.
Orwell also cautioned against the use of fear as a means to maintain power. “The object of terrorism is terrorism. The object of oppression is oppression.” By instilling uncertainty about NATO’s future, Trump effectively forces European leaders to act in a reactionary manner rather than proactively strengthening their own defences. This dynamic leaves space for aggressive actors to exploit the fractures within the Western alliance. In 1984, the Party uses perpetual war as a means of controlling its population, ensuring that citizens remain in a constant state of fear and submission. Trump’s unpredictability in foreign policy similarly fosters a climate of unease, keeping European nations in a defensive posture rather than allowing them to dictate their own strategic futures.
The Implications for the Future
The breakdown of NATO’s unity would not only weaken Europe’s ability to deter threats but also create a power vacuum that could lead to increased global instability. Orwell’s vision of a fractured world dominated by propaganda and ever-changing alliances is becoming a tangible reality as international cooperation is replaced by self-interest and transactional diplomacy.
The only way to counteract this trend is for European nations to take decisive action in strengthening their own defences, as NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has suggested. Or more prudently, for every nation to disarm and tell the warmongering profiteers to go for a long one-way trip to anywhere but Earth. If Europe fails to heed the warnings of history—and of Orwell—then the world may edge closer to the dystopian reality he so vividly depicted in 1984.
In summary, Orwell’s novel was not just a work of fiction but a prescient warning about the dangers of eroding trust, manipulation of truth, and the fragility of alliances in the face of self-serving leadership. As Trump’s NATO stance highlights, the principles of 1984 are not confined to literature—they are manifesting in modern geopolitics.
