Here are my 10 predictions for 2014 in South Dorset…
-
More people will be using food banks and going cold as the cost of living crisis continues to bite. Whatever is said about the economic recovery, inflation – particularly housing costs and energy bills – still outstrips pay, and too many people are still in insecure, low-paid work. Referrals to Citizens Advice Bureaux, food banks and crisis services will continue to rise as the Tories shoulder the poorest with their ideological austerity agenda.
-
Labour will make advances at the local elections in May. 2013 saw Weymouth & Portland Borough Council become Tory-free at County Council level. Expect South Dorset Labour to pick up further gains, possibly becoming the largest political group on the Council. Successive Tory and Lib Dem-led Management Committees have seen the Borough struggle to provide services, the promised “Olympic legacy” fail to materialise, and a declining town centre with little evidence of any vision or strategy. Labour will bring a fresh approach and new ideas, with new faces too – 3 of its candidates for May are under the age of 30.
-
Labour will win back an MEP in the south west as UKIP benefits from Tory discontent. Labour lost its only MEP in the south west in the last set of Euro elections in 2009. Come 2014, there will be Labour representation back in the south west in Brussels, with Clare Moody getting elected. The Tories will be facing huge challenges from UKIP across Dorset and the South West, which will not only affect their EU votes, but the local election results held on the same day.
-
Richard Drax MP will remain out-of-touch with voters, and disconnected from his peers. Whether it was personally profiting from the very same Green subsidies that he voted against in parliament, suggesting that “armies of conscripted offenders” help to keep our borders safe, or suggesting that the Sun’s page 3 “provides jobs for girls”, our local MP kept us entertained if nothing else in 2013. However, his job is to stick up for Dorset – and his repeated rebellions have perhaps cost him influence in the Tory inner circle as his efforts to save Portland’s coastguard helicopter or to reduce subsidies to off-shore windfarms have all fallen on deaf ears among his ministerial colleagues.
-
Scotland won’t become independent – although some working in local defence-related industries might want that! In September 2014 Scots will vote on whether Scotland should become a country independent of the rest of the UK. While supporters of Scottish independence have maintained a passionate campaign, the opinion polls still indicate a probable “no” vote, as voters’ anxieties about the economy, defence, and their place in the EU remain unresolved. I believe the UK is stronger together, and will be hoping that the Scottish people vote to stay in the UK – but should they choose to leave, defence-related jobs and contracts could move south…
-
Cameron will be under pressure from the right of his party – and expect more right-wing sabre-rattling as a result. As UKIP makes gains, Cameron will move to appease his own restless backbenchers with more lurches to the right. Expect continued negative headlines about immigration, the EU, human rights, the NHS, “soft” prison sentences, “benefit cheats / scroungers”, and – of course – unions.
-
Energy policy will remain a key issue – locally as well as nationally. Labour’s pledge at its 2013 conference to freeze energy bills thoroughly wrong-footed Cameron. First, it was “Marxist”, and “threatened the nation’s security”; then he admitted it “struck a chord” with the nation, and finally tried to introduce a pale imitation as rumours circulated that he had begged energy companies to voluntarily freeze prices. Locally, there has been opposition to both on-shore and off-shore windfarms, opposition to solar farms, and opposition to exploratory drilling for shale gas in Purbeck. One thing is certain, we need a significant increase in energy capacity – so Dorset will need a sensible and informed debate on how our energy needs will be met. (You can contribute to Labour’s policy debate on energy here.)
-
The cracks will continue to show in the Coalition as the 2015 General Election draws closer. The Tories will seek to blame the Lib Dems for holding them back on their more right-wing policy objectives and the Lib Dems will say that they’re responsible for “moderating” the Tories. It will, of course, all be carefully stage-managed and choreographed by ministers and their spin doctors, at a time when they should be showing leadership on the very real cost of living crisis hitting households across the country. Coalitions are common and effective in other European countries (as any fan of Borgen will tell you!) but this particular coalition government will continue to give coalitions a bad name in the minds of UK voters.
-
The UK will NOT be overrun with Bulgarians and Romanians. This was a scare story from autumn / winter 2013 that is typical of what we will come to see under prediction 6, above! The truth is, there are 5.5 million British citizens living and working abroad, and 4.2 million citizens of other nations living and working in the UK. We all benefit from the free movement of trade and labour, and that continues. As Britain’s cost of living crisis affects even migrant workers, one of the more amusing quotes from a Romanian interviewed by the press on 1st January was “…most of my friends are going to Sweden or Denmark – the pay is better there.”
-
Marriage equality is welcome – and will be beautiful. Credit where it’s due – Cameron did well to stand up to those in his own party (including Richard Drax) who opposed the Equal Marriage Bill. In March gay and lesbian couples will be able to marry for the first time. Equality of relationship will bring happiness to thousands of people across the country and Dorset will celebrate its first equal marriages. The ground will not open up, the sky will not cave in – but anyone, regardless of who they have fallen in love with, can live together equally in the eyes of the law and of society. At a time of the year when we look forward to a new start, and wish those around us love and happiness, this seems a positive note to end on!
May I wish you all a very happy 2014!
Simon Bowkett is the South Dorset Labour Prospective Parliamentary Candidate. Follow his campaign at www.simonbowkett.co.uk, and on Twitter @Simon_Bowkett
