Whistleblower reveals that Corbyn could have won 2017 election until Tories leant on YouGov

Many of us suspected subterfuge and corruption but only now can we reveal it with the contribution of an insider.

My experience of the 2017 General Election as an employee of YouGov

Firstly, it is worth noting just how dramatically the opinion polls changed during the course of the campaign. This isn’t how things are supposed to happen.

My experience of the 2017 General Election was probably a bit different from Andrew's.

Firstly, it is worth noting just how dramatically the opinion polls changed during the course of the campaign. This isn't how things are supposed to happen. https://t.co/Gip2GHey1x pic.twitter.com/WsbdoaBYAr

— Chris Curtis (@chriscurtis94) June 8, 2022

There are loads of reasons for the shift (Tory hubris/volatile electorate/manifestos/Corbyn/The Tories screwing up their attack lines) but it was certainly very difficult for us pollsters to deal with. When something this dramatic happens, you struggle to believe it. 

The first thing I would do every morning is download the overnight data, and each day the gap just kept getting smaller and smaller. On the morning of the Manchester bombing, we actually had Labour pulling level, although the poll got spiked because the campaign rightly paused. We looked at everything to try and work out why this was happening.

One theory was that Corbyn supporters had mass joined the panel (despite the checks we have on such things happening) and were playing the system to get the Labour numbers up. But we looked at excluding people who had joined the panel more recently, and it made no difference to the final numbers. At one point, and I feel stupid saying this now, I seriously wondered if we had been hacked by nefarious actors. And then we released the MRP. This was probably the worst possible idea. The MRP was actually showing exactly the same thing as our standard polls would have, but it was the first time anybody had said “hung parliament”. 

So rather than doing what we should have done – pointing out that traditional polls were showing the gap was narrowing dramatically and this is something to be taken seriously – it was “new experimental methodology” that showed it, which was therefore dismissed. 

When anybody from the Tory campaign tells you they also knew this was happening, I would to point out that this was the quote from Crosby at the time. (as per @ShippersUnbound)

Despite it being entirely predictable, everybody panicked at the backlash to the MRP. Nadhim Zahawi called up the CEO and said he would call for his resignation if he was wrong. It became pretty clear we would all be out of a job if we were wrong now.

And this meant our polling and coverage was a lot worse for the rest of the campaign. We did a fantastic debate poll in the hours following the debate that Corbyn took part in. The results were stark – Corbyn won by a country mile, and one in four Tory voters thought he was best. But despite having written the story and designed the charts, we were banned from releasing the story because it was too positive about Labour. Similarly, there were a few “minor” methodology changes for the final poll which increase the Tory lead. This was done after pressure from high-ups (and despite protests from those of us who thought it wasn’t ok).

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

Final call poll: Tories lead by seven points and set to increase majority

On the final day of the campaign, the team went out for dinner, all assuming we were about to lose our jobs.

I was invited to an election night party but just wanted to go home. I got on the train back to Milton Keynes and was going through a tunnel when the exit poll came out, frantically trying to refresh my phone. Eventually, I heard it first from the men sitting on the table opposite. A few lessons I have learned from the campaign:
1) Trust the data
2) Ignore political commentators when they don’t trust the data
3) The electorate is volatile now, bigger shifts are to be expected. 

Should probably add here, that obviously I wasn’t in this conversation. The quote is from @ShippersUnbound book. 

Chris Curtis

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