Lord Daniel Hannan’s 2016 vision for post‑Brexit Britain—with a precise set‑piece dated 24 June 2025—has proven almost entirely off‑beam. Let’s unpack his key predictions and assess their real‑world outcomes.
1. “Independence Day” fireworks & national revival
Prediction: A grand annual celebration on 24 June 2025, marking economic growth, renewed democracy and international prestige.
Reality: No such celebration exists. Polls show 56% of Brits now view Brexit as a mistake, with 56% supporting re‑joining the EU ideasthatbrokebritain.co.uk+10theguardian.com+10thenewworld.co.uk+10. The economy is roughly 4% smaller than pre‑Brexit projections thenational.scot+2thenewworld.co.uk+2reddit.com+2.
2. Economy & GDP growth
Prediction: Brexit would “reinvigorate our economy”—growth would surge ahead.
Reality: UK per‑capita GDP has underperformed relative to the EU—3.9% growth vs 10.5% for the eurozone since 2016 . Output is lower and forecasts remain subdued.
3. Knowledge‑based & new industries
Prediction: Britain becomes “the region’s foremost knowledge‑based economy”; booming biotech, driverless cars, 3D printing, software hubs, tech in Hoxton.
Reality: The Global Knowledge Index ranks the UK only 7th in Europe. Innovation access has been hampered by leaving Horizon Europe and tougher immigration rules hansard.parliament.uk+7newstatesman.com+7thenational.scot+7. Tech clusters have not surpassed their EU counterparts.
4. Financial services boom
Prediction: City of London expands—EU financial regulations would drive firms to UK.
Reality: Over 7,000 financial jobs and €1.3 trillion in assets have shifted to EU cities like Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin newstatesman.com+11ideasthatbrokebritain.co.uk+11independent.co.uk+11.
5. Energy & fuel prices tumble
Prediction: UK “fuel bills have tumbled,” boosting productivity and incomes.
Reality: UK energy bills are among the highest in Europe, partly due to exiting the EU energy market .
6. Higher‑education renaissance
Prediction: Flourishing universities, world‑leading student attraction via visa control.
Reality: EU student numbers have fallen; stricter visa rules have hurt higher‑ed. Overall, sector is struggling .
7. Immigration overhaul
Prediction: Points‑based system brings elite global talent, while maintaining control.
Reality: Migration has shifted but not reduced; key sectors (healthcare, agriculture, construction) now face labour shortages .
8. Trade deals & bloc‑leadership
Prediction: Smooth global trade deals (India, China, Australia) and leading a new 22‑nation free‑trade bloc.
Reality: UK is negotiating as a lone player—not a bloc—with deals offering minimal net benefit (e.g., Australia). No other countries left the EU to follow UK example .
9. EU in decline
Prediction: EU would stagnate politically and economically.
Reality: The EU remains intact, with no collapse of its currency or institutions .
10. Hannan’s own reflections
He later expressed regret that the UK didn’t stay in (or more closely align with) the single market, acknowledging the benefits of such membership podcastworld.io+7thenational.scot+7en.wikipedia.org+7.
Public ridicule & “Daniel Hannan Day”
Every 24 June, his 2016 article resurfaces, with social media mocking his “sunlit uplands” fantasy—#DanielHannanDay stirred comments like:
“The future he promised… is so exciting, I think my heart may burst” podcastworld.io+8thelondoneconomic.com+8theguardian.com+8
“British values of genuflecting to posh people who refuse to accept responsibility…” reddit.com+4thelondoneconomic.com+4dailysignal.com+4
Even a satirical “Daniel Hannan Day” piece noted Brexit has inflicted a 4% GDP hit, ironically on the exact date he forecast national celebration descrier.co.uk+4theguardian.com+4thelondoneconomic.com+4.
🔍 Why the predictions failed
- Ideological overreach: Hannan wrote a utopian narrative rather than a grounded forecast .
- Underestimating complexity: Trade, regulatory divergence, labour mobility and negotiations proved more difficult than anticipated.
- Economic costs: Red tape from customs, lower foreign investment, and labor shortages weighed heavily.
📊 Summary table
| Prediction | Reality |
|---|---|
| GDP boom | ~4% below forecast; lagging vs EU peers |
| Knowledge/innovation leader | Ranked 7th in Europe; research funding and access cut |
| Financial services hub | Loss of jobs/assets to EU financial centres |
| Lower energy prices | Among highest in Europe |
| Higher ED/immigration boom | Student numbers and labor issues increased, not improved noted |
| Global trade deals | Deals small-scale; no new bloc formed |
| EU decline | EU remains resilient; no major political or economic collapse |
🧭 Conclusion
Hannan’s 2025 prophecy largely fails on almost all fronts: economic performance, innovation, energy, education, migration, and global prominence. What’s left is a national conversation on re‑alignment with Europe—vindicated by Hannan’s own later admission that single‑market ties were essential. Analysts across outlets (Guardian, New World, Independent) unanimously judge his predictions as “wildly delusional” hansard.parliament.uk+5thenewworld.co.uk+5theguardian.com+5reddit.com+12ideasthatbrokebritain.co.uk+12thenewworld.co.uk+12.
Final take
Lord Hannan’s colourful “sunlit uplands” forecast for a sovereign, booming Britain by 2025 stands in stark contrast to today’s evidence: slower growth, economic drag, sectoral decline, and societal ambivalence. His grand narrative serves now as both a cautionary tale and a benchmark for unbridled optimism unmoored from empirical reality.
